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January 27, 2009

This Week's Predictions and the Race to 14

The Race to 14 is not a bad new reality TV show, but what will be occurring in the Big Ten men's hoops season over the next few weeks.

I am convinced that 14 wins will take no worse than a share, and probably an outright league title this year. Normally that number is 15, and last year with Wisconsin's stellar season it was 16.

Look at it this way, there are many good teams in the conference this season. But perhaps there are no great ones. Every team outside of MSU still has two losses and the Spartans still have to play Purdue twice. Illinois plays at Minnesota this Thursday andin Madison next Thursday. In reality 13 wins may get a league title but I think either MSU or Purdue could finish 14-4 (or better).

So enjoy the Race to 14 the next few weeks. We'll know a lot tonight after Purdue plays at Wisconsin. And wouldn't you know the one year that Wisconsin is down is the year we don't have to play in Madison? And the one year that Michigan is good they don't come to East Lansing?

Do you think 14 wins will be enough to take home an undisputed league title? What about 13? Sound off below.

And since everyone loves predictions, here are the early week predictions around the Big Ten:

Wisconsin 72, Purdue 68 (tonight) - I just can't see the Badgers losing 5 in a row in the conference. That being said, is there any doubt that Purdue is the biggest threat to MSU to win the conference title this season? It's hard to do but MSU fans should root for Uncle Bo.

Ohio State 65, Michigan 63 (Wednesday) - I went back and forth on this one. The Buckeyes only play seven regulars and the Wolverines are actually deeper. But the difference is 1) the Wolverines have yet to prove they can play well in a true road game and 2) BJ Mullens is a bad matchup for Michigan inside.

Northwestern 73, Indiana 57 (Wednesday) - Don't feel too sorry for Tom Crean considering he will have a top 20 team in two years in Bloomington.

Michigan State 62, Iowa 55(Wednesday) - The Hawkeyes will play that slow-down, boring style of basketball with long possessions that frustrated MSU last year in the Debacle of 08. Raymar Morgan will contribute some key baskets down the stretch and the Spartans get enough outside shooting to survive a scary trip to Corn Land.

Illinois 71, Minnesota 62 (Thursday) - The Gophers are getting exposed for being a solid team with no go-to scorers and enough inexperience to veer toward a 9-9 conference season. I don't know that any team is playing better team defense than Illinois right now. This may be an upset in Minneapolis but I think Illinois will clearly establish itself as a league contender after this game. We're finding out that Bruce Weber really can coach.

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