Bleeding Green

Possible MSU Hoops Commitment Next Week?

It's possible that MSU may add another 4-star hoops commitment next week. Jamil Wilson, a 6-7 wing from Racine, Wis. is expected to make a decision on March 8 as to where he will enroll in Fall 2009.

Wilson has narrowed his choices to Michigan State, Oregon and Texas although the Longhorns seem to be a distant third in that pecking order if published reports are correct. Wilson is having a great senior season on a team that earlier in February was the #3 ranked team in Wisconsin. He is averaging over 20 points and 11 rebounds per game. He seems to be a bright guy and according to multiple reports I have read, Wilson is a great athlete and a true "slasher" with a developing outside shot and a wiry frame.

Michigan Helps MSU, Finally

Well Michigan pulled off the upset over Purdue tonight beating them 87-78.  This gives Michigan State a two game lead on both Purdue and Illinois.  A victory by Michigan State over Illinois would give MSU a stranglehold over the conference.  If MSU defeats Illinois they would only need to beat lowly Indiana to clinch the title. 

The finale against Purdue could just become a beauty contest.  Don't you feel a whole lot better today than you did on February 17th when Michigan State lost to Purdue?

It's Almost March - You Know What That Means

I agree completely with Joe Rexrode that last week's loss at Purdue was not a surprise. The second half was a disaster but let's be honest, Duke lost at Clemson by more than 30 points. Louisville lost at Notre Dame by 33 points. It happens. Hopefully only once for this year's MSU team.

MSU is probably about where it should be. The Spartans in my opinion are clearly not in the first tier of NCAA squads - one comprised only of Pitt, North Carolina (even though it lost at Maryland), and Oklahoma (only when Blake Griffin is healthy). I'm not sure yet if UConn is still at that top level without starting guard Jerome Dyson who is now out for the season.

Bon Ton Roule!

Well, Selection Sunday and the start of the NCAA  Tournament are about three weeks away.  I know for me, and I'm sure many of you, this is the most exciting time of the year.  Since both the ladies' and men's teams seem "safe" bets for invites, it's not too early to talk about where they will play and possible opponents.

Ouch Man

Well there are still several pieces of good news after Purdue trounced Michigan State 72-54.

1. The sun will come up tomorrow.                                                     

2. Michigan State still controls its own destiny. 

3. The women's team is tied for first place in the Big Ten.

4. The Spartans won't have to play in Mackey Arena again this year.

5. Michigan State still has two NCAA Championships that I'm sure won't be taken away from Spartan fans anytime soon.

Okay, really the only good news is that Michigan State stills control its own destiny and perhaps that they don't have to play in Mackey Arena.  I know some of you had dreams of a #1 seed (really I'm just guilty of this) but that seems out of the question now.  The Spartans can still redeem themselves by beating Purdue on March 8.

I know what you are saying, how can they beat Purdue in a few weeks after being so thoroughly dominated tonight?  Well as Tom Izzo said at halftime, Michigan State missed five lay ups.  That could have been 10 points or at least 8 points which would have made it a different game in the second half.  I'm sure if Michigan State had scored those points in the first half they wouldn't have forced some the shots they did in the second half. 

However, even if everything had gone perfectly Purdue still probably would have won by a few points.  Purdue plays the best defense in the Big Ten and Purdue forward JaJuan Johnson has NBA written all over him.  I still think Michigan State can take Purdue in East Lansing.  This group is a resilient bunch.  They over came a disaster against North Carolina and now still lead the Big Ten.   

Purdue really over plays the ball and I think that can be turned against them in the rematch.  Right now Chris Allen and Kalin Lucas are in mini shooting slumps which I believe they will overcome.  Also my fellow Cantonian (that's Canton, OH) Raymar Morgan will get back into the swing of things and he will be a factor in the next meeting. 

So what do you think of my "sunny side" up philosophy?  Is Michigan State still bound to win the title?  Or have I been drinking too much?

I do know this much, if Michigan State falters against those pesky Badgers (I do mean pesky) then good bye out right Big Ten title and Spartan fans will be praying for another Tom Izzo "March Madness" miracle in the NCAA Tournament. 

Upsets Galore around Top 10 and Impact on MSU

It goes without saying this is a big week for the Spartans. It should be noted that Robbie Hummel and his creaky back were fairly ineffective (two points) in an ugly win at Iowa for Purdue on Saturday. I expect tomorrow's game to be low scoring again.

As for the other Big Ten games from last week, stick a fork in Northwestern, whose choke job Thursday parallels any of the worst MSU football meltdowns we have seen over the years. Then the 'Cats refused to make free throws down the stretch Sunday against Michigan. Penn State and the Wolverines still have a shot at the NCAA and Wisconsin may be on the inside looking out after a win over Ohio State.

The Race to 14 continues. If Michigan State gets to 14 wins, they have the conference title wrapped up - on their own.

But how about some of the other upsets around the country? MSU is in great position for a #2 or #3 seed if they can go 4-2 down the stretch, win the Big Ten and win at least a game in the conference tournament. Consider:

• #5 Duke lost at Boston College and the Blue Devils now have 4 ACC losses
• Clemson inexplicably lost at Virginia, which was 1-8 in the ACC headed into the game Sunday
• Wake Forest lost again this week
• Louisville lost at Notre Dame by 33 points
• UCLA lost to both Arizona schools
• Even Butler and Florida lost this weekend to bad conference foes

More than ever it appears the best teams in the country are (I believe in this order): North Carolina, Oklahoma and UConn (the Huskies are third given their key injury). Pitt plays UConn tonight. But the #2 seeds are wide open right now as the ACC and Big East powers keep losing.

Viewing Spartan Football Will be More Expensive

I see Michigan State announced today that it will cost $3 more per game on a football season ticket purchase, from $41 to $44 per game.  This means that a regular season ticket will increase from $287 to $308 for the seven game package.

Where Is MSU?

What I mean by this is over the past few years MSU has repaired a lot that was broken in its athletic programs.  MSU men's and women's hoops, football, hockey (most years, but not this so far), soccer, field hockey, golf, and others have improved at a steady pace.  It looks like we will now stay in the upper echelon in hoops and football for some years based on recruiting trends, coaching stability, and (finally) real cooperation at the administrative level. 

Student athletes reflect the university's rising academic standards, and I'm often impressed with how smart and composed most of our kids are on camera, as with other Big Ten athletes (who virtually all used to embarrass us in pre-Rose Bowl and other TV interviews).  It shouldn't be a stretch to say we're currently ahead of PU, IU, MN, IA, and NW in major sports, but I'm curious about other opinions and where this new success will take us over the next several years.

So, using whatever rational criteria you prefer as an MSU fan, where do you think MSU athletics are today and for the near term relative to the Big Ten or even other schools?

MSU Seeding, Big Ten Bubble Talk

Great win by MSU yesterday. This was the type of win they could pull out during the 1998-2001 seasons. And remember that the Spartans were 3-6 on the road in the BigTen last year, and I think the conference is better overall this season. If the Spartans do indeed win the conference title, Travis Walton should be defensive player of the year.

However let's not forget that Kalin Lucas, Durrell Summers and even Chris Allen all took turns on guarding Manny Harris yesterday. They all did a nice job. And notice how MSU rarely switched on the perimeter and that they even played man when U-M inbounded from underneath their own basket.

Now with a week off let's talk about NCAA tournament possibilities and how MSU and the Big Ten look. Let's make the irresponsible by reasonable assumption that MSU wins the conference title and get to the Big Ten tournament title game. If that happens, they would be no worse than a #2 seed. Unless the Spartans tank, their high RPI and SOS should make them no worse than a #3 seed.

But can they get a #1 seed? For that to happen I think MSU would have to finish the regular season 25-5 and get to the tournament title game, 27-6 minimum. Consider the other top teams in the country:

• North Carolina, Oklahoma and UConn - virtual locks for #1 seeds
• Pitt - ahead of MSU in the pecking order based on total record, a comparable RPI and playing in a tougher overall conference (but not by much).
• Duke - I think they will lose twice to NC; and could end up as a #2 or #3 seed at about MSU's level.
• Wake Forest - already three league losses with probably 2 more to come. The Deacons should be a #3 seed, but a talented one at that.
• Louisville - a lot like Wake Forest; immense talent, Final Four capable and fighting with MSU for the last #1 seed and the #2 seeds.
• UCLA - they won't jump above MSU unless they win out and really have no shot at a #1.
• Clemson - if they run the table and get to the ACC final...but still probably no better than a #2 seed.
• Marquette - just got crunched by Villanova after losing to South Florida and Stan Heath; hurtling toward a #4 seed.
• Memphis - somebody get them out of Conference USA; that being said they are in the discussion for a 2-3 seed.

What may be more important is where MSU will play in the tournament. Let's say they get the #2 seed in the Midwest. It would appear that a trip to Detroit would go through Minneapolis (not bad) and Indianapolis (a short drive south from East Lansing).

That would be the ideal path although it appears the West region will have two subregionals in Dayton. So if the Spartans were to get a #1 or #2 seed in the West, Dayton could be the site of the first two games.

As for the other Big Ten team's chances for the NCAAs (stats from www.kenpom.com):

Likely in

Purdue (17-6, RPI 19, SOS 57) - barring a collapse or injuries, Purdue is in and could be seeded anywhere from 2 (if they win out) to 6. Something in the 4 range is likely and keep in mind their two non-conference losses came to Duke and Oklahoma (in overtime). But if Robbie Hummel is out for an extended time, that could hurt Purdue's seeding.

Illinois (19-5, RPI 22, SOS 41) - the Illini are in at a likely 4-5 seed range even thought their nonconference schedule was generally weak outside of a win over Missouri (looking better by the day) and 2-point loss to Clemson.

Ohio State (17-5, RPI 41, SOS 49) - it's looking good for Ohio State. Its pre-Big Ten schedule was highlighted by a 3-point win over Butler and victories over Miami Fla and now-reeling Notre Dame but a thrashing by fellow bubble team West Virginia. The Buckeyes still have to go @ Wisconsin and @ Purdue and host Illinois. If they get to 10 Big Ten wins they should be a lock for a 5-8 seed.

Minnesota (19-5, RPI 53, SOS 42) - in their last seven games the Gophers are 3-4 with two narrow wins over Indiana. Outside of a good home win against Illinois, Minnesota is struggling. That Louisville win is holding up for now but games @ Penn State, Michigan and Illinois loom. They are looking good but are far from a sure thing. I'm guessing they could be a 7-9 seed.

Toss-up

Wisconsin (14-9, RPI 36, SOS 7) - the Badgers need to win games but they have Iowa at home tonight and still play Indiana twice. Virginia Tech on the road is a nice win as is Illinois at home but no true signature wins. 10-8 in the Big Ten would do it but that will be hard. Uncle Bo has work to do but the schedule and SOS is favorable.

Don't hold your breath

Northwestern (13-8, RPI 63, SOS 55) - it's pretty simple for the 'Cats. Beat Illinois and Michigan at home over the next few days and then we can talk about their Bubble chances. The win in East Lansing is giving Northwestern big points so far. But they still have to play @ Minnesota, @ Purdue and twice against Ohio State. Get to 9-9 in the conference and they have an outside chance having beaten Florida State too.

Michigan (15-10, RPI 72, SOS 17) - I've seen the RPIs of most Big ten teams higher in places other than KenPom.com. Regardless Michigan's chances are slim like Northwestern's. The game Sunday in Evanston could be an elimination game. If Michigan can get to 9-9 in the conference and win a game or two in the Big Ten tournament, those wins over Duke and UCLA should be enough. But getting to 9-9 means winning a road game and beating Purdue and Minnesota at home.

Penn State (17-7, RPI 76, SOS 120) - their best nonconference win? Against RPI 96 Georgia Tech. Ugh. @ Purdue, @ Illinois, @ Ohio State still to come? Ugh. Looks like Taylor Battle will need to hit a few more 30-footers.

Final Thoughts on Football Recruiting

I figured I better write something soon or I would get thrown out as a blogger.  Here it goes... 

Forget about the recruiting rankings which is unpredictable. What is interesting is how Michigan State and Michigan went about their recruiting this year.  While Michigan State concentrated on recruits from Michigan and the Midwest, the University Michigan went national in its recruiting. 

Only four of Michigan's incoming recruits are from the State of Michigan.  Rich Rodriquez is basically taking the philosophy that he is building not just a regional program but a national program by going after recruits from all over the country.  While Mark Dantanio philosophy seems to be we can build a "BCS" caliber program with Michigan and Midwest kids with a few national recruits sprinkled in. 

Which philosophy do you think will work?  Before you answer let me ask this, can both philosophies work?  Can the State of Michigan have two great football programs year after year? 

Why not?  It happens in other states.  For instance Auburn and Alabama are both from the same state.  The State of Alabama  has a much small population than Michigan, but historically despite a few ups and downs (such as Auburn this year) both schools have been very good in football. 

Why can't both philosophies work and the Big Ten title be decided by Michigan State vs. Michigan instead of Michigan vs. Ohio State?  Or is it too early to peg either coaches' recruiting philosophy?