It's Almost March - You Know What That Means

I agree completely with Joe Rexrode that last week's loss at Purdue was not a surprise. The second half was a disaster but let's be honest, Duke lost at Clemson by more than 30 points. Louisville lost at Notre Dame by 33 points. It happens. Hopefully only once for this year's MSU team.

MSU is probably about where it should be. The Spartans in my opinion are clearly not in the first tier of NCAA squads - one comprised only of Pitt, North Carolina (even though it lost at Maryland), and Oklahoma (only when Blake Griffin is healthy). I'm not sure yet if UConn is still at that top level without starting guard Jerome Dyson who is now out for the season.

Illinois' loss to Penn State last week helps MSU in the Big Ten race a bit. Of course what helped even more was the last 12 minutes of Sunday's win over Wisconsin. Delvon Roe and Goran Suton were dominant in the paint. Kalin Lucas suddenly made good decisions. Even Chris Allen hit a big shot. And the defense was stifling. What MSU lacks - and what most teams lack - is that difference-maker who can turn a game in his team's favor with his own play. Oklahoma has it with Griffin. UConn has it with Thabeet (particularly on defense). North Carolina has Hansborough. Pitt has DeJuan Blair.

So now unless MSU collapses they appear to be in good shape for a #2 or #3 seed. Their win over Kansas looks better by the day. If MSU loses once between now and the end of the Big Ten tournament, there is no way they don't get a #2 seed at least. Even with two losses they have a chance for a #2 seed so root for teams like Marquette, Louisville, Duke, Clemson, Wake Forest and others to lose. I would add Memphis in there but they apparently are in a league with high school teams.

Of course the most important thing now is a conference championship. Get ready for a war Saturday in that decrepit old arena in southern Illinois where the amount of orange hurts your eyes and the bad lighting is rivaled only by Crisler Arena. But I'm going to say MSU should beat Illinois. They have more talented players and can play just as tough defense. The big matchup might be Suton on Mike Davis, the emerging Illinois forward who is probably the most improved player in the league.

As far as the Big Ten Bubble Picture, here's how it stands (all stats courtesy of CBSSports.com):

In Like Flynn

MSU (21-5, RPI6, SOS 5) - Guys, please don't blow this conference title. #2 or #3 seed in NCAAs likely.

Purdue (21-6, RPI 23, SOS 41) - The Boilers are a MUCH better team with Robbie Hummel. He is a tremendous all-around college player. With the way the schedule is lined up, Purdue should be somewhere between a #3 and #5 seed in the tourney.

Illinois (22-6, RPI 16, SOS 34) - I think Purdue is better than Illinois and will have a longer NCAA run by the way the Illini play defense they can beat anyone. A #5 or #6 seed is likely although beating MSU could push them higher.

Better than 50/50?

Minnesota (20-7, RPI 34, SOS 48) - I think Tubby Smith is a terrific coach and has the Gophers in a position this year where they overachieved. I would not be surprised if they were one and done in the NCAAs. If Minnesota gets to 22 wins they are in; 21 might even do it. But only Louisville and Illinois at home are signature wins so far. A battle this weekend at Illinois is followed up by home games again fellow Bubble teams Wisconsin and Michigan.

Wisconsin (17-10, RPI 28, SOS 4) - I think the Badgers are going to be in. Strength of schedule, reputation and three games left (home versus Michigan and Indiana, @Minnesota) tell me this. But without a consistent scoring threat, how much damage could they do?

Coin Flip

Ohio State (17-8, RPI 43, SOS 29) - The Buckeyes need to stop losing games to lower-division Big Ten teams and losing home games. Tonight's game at home against Penn State is HUGE. A win and the Buckeyes are in good shape. A loss makes 4 in a row - with a road trip this weekend to Purdue coming up. Wins over Butler, Notre Dame and Miami Fla. will only help so much.

Penn State (19-8, RPI 62, SOS 86) - Ultimately if the Nittany Lions win two more regular season games they will finish at least 10-8 in the conference with wins at MSU, at Illinois and versus Purdue. To me, that's enough. And they should beat Indiana at home this weekend and have winnable road games at Ohio State and Iowa along with a home game versus Illinois. If Penn State beats Illinois again, I don't see how they can be left out,  however the poor computer numbers are a bit troubling. Did I mention tonight's game at Ohio State is big for both teams?

If things fall into place

Michigan (17-11, RPI 56, SOS 19) - You can't lose to an Iowa team that is without a starter and two reserves and has a fourth player, forward Cyrus Tate, severely limited by a bad ankle injury. But after surviving games against Savannah State and Indiana earlier in the year in OT that the Wolverines should have lost, they lost a game Sunday they should have won. Beat Purdue at home Thursday and things look better. Then Michigan still has to beat either Wisconsin or Minnesota on the road. There is a better chance U-M could go 0-3 than 3-0 in its last three games but I believe they still control their own NCAA destiny even without winning the conference tournament.

NIT or bust

Northwestern (14-11, still needs to win two game to assure a winning record); Iowa (14-13, needs a mini miracle to finish with the necessary winning record)

Projected Big Ten Tournament Bracket: my predictions based on how the rest of the regular season will go

Round 1: #6 Ohio State vs. #11 Indiana; #7 Minnesota vs. #10 Iowa; #8 Michigan vs. #9 Northwestern

Round 2: #4 Penn state vs. #5 Wisconsin; #3 Illinois; #2 Purdue; #1 Michigan State