MSU Survives the College Hoops Carnage

Did anyone really think that Michigan State would technically fare better at Illinois than at Indiana?

But one great road effort and another shaky (at best) one produced two wins, a sole Big Ten title, and a likely #2 NCAA seeding. That's all that matters, although having to hit free throws in th final seconds to win at 1-15 Indiana Tuesday night was a little nerve-racking.

Tom Crean is a great coach and he does know MSU's offense. It was a virtual layup drill for the Spartans early in Bloomington on Tuesday but then Crean adjusted and had his guys playing off the Spartans on the perimeter, making sure help was available in the paint. And it worked: MSU couldn't hit the broad side of the ocean from the outside late in the game.

I thought MSU was very good defensively in both games. Mike Davis is a tough cover for Illinois and he is hard to stop when he's on as he was in the first half Sunday. We all know the great job ID did in the second half. And the Spartans defense was very good for 32-33 minutes Tuesday although there were some brutal help defense breakdowns when MSU didn't rotate well or didn't switch screens up high fast enough. Indiana also hit a few deep shots. It happens.

Hang the banner. Goal #1 is complete. We can now say that the Spartans have won six times as many Big Ten titles (1990, 98, 99, 2000, 01, 09) as the Wolverines have during the last 20 years.

Now MSU is not only in good shape for a #2 seed, they are in the discussion for a #1 with the Oklahoma loss yesterday. In fact, today the #2 seeds likely would be: Louisville, Michigan State, Memphis and Duke (or possibly Wake Forest). Who else is there? Villanova lost last week to a 6-11 (in the Big East) Georgetown team. Missouri got hammered last week at Kansas. Clemson lost. Kansas was shocked yesterday by Texas Tech. LSU lost at home to Vanderbilt. I think if MSU beats Purdue they are a #2 seed at worst.

Some of the other games this week have been shocking - and good for Big Ten Bubble teams. Miami losing at last-place Georgia Tech? Kentucky losing at home to last-place Georgia? Florida's loss at Mississippi State wasn't a bad one but it certainly hurts. Notre Dame and the Hoyas stunk it up. And now Northwestern is legitimately in the discussion for an NCAA berth.

Who will make it from the Big Ten? I think Penn State wins at home against Illinois tonight and punches its ticket over the weekend. I think Minnesota ekes out a win over Michigan and gets in. Wisconsin beats pesky Indiana at home and gets in. And I think Northwestern wins in Columbus, meaning Northwestern, Ohio State and Michigan all need a win or two in the Big Ten tournament to get in. At the end of the day, the Big ten may get 7 teams in because the teams in seemingly every other league are choking.

Quite frankly I think there are only a handful of teams that can win six straight games in the NCAA. Here's my rank of them in order of favorites:

1. North Carolina - okay so they don't always play defense. It's not like they were a lock-down team in 2005 either when they won the title. There may not be an NBA All-Star on their roster but they have so many really good college players it may not matter.

2. Pittsburgh - my biggest concern with the Panthers is that they don't really have guys who can easily create their own shot when they need a big basket. Sam Young is the closest. They also don't have a great outside shooting team. But they are big, tough and can play D.

3. UConn - AJ Price looks ready to take over for the loss of Jerome Dyson. If Price can keep up his recent play, they are for real. But the Huskies still have trouble scoring at times. And if Thabeet gets in foul trouble they are a much easier team to score against.

4. Oklahoma - the Sooners still have the best player in the nation and some talent on the perimeter. But are young guys like Willie Warren experienced enough to run the table?

5. Louisville - point guard play is erratic. The big men can disappear for stretches. But if they are on top of their game, perhaps only North Carolina is more talented.

6. MSU - like UConn, the Spartans can struggle to score. They don't have a great 3-point shooting team. But I think once they get away from playing Big Ten teams, they will have success in the first 2-3 rounds minimum. It's all based on matchups.

7. Memphis - they have a swagger. They can "D" up. They have depth and athleticism. Who's their go-to scorer though? Taggert? Anderson? Can they make free throws? Don't overlook the Tigers.

8. Wake Forest - there may not be more NBA talent on any team right now than the Deacons. But it's young talent. They haven't been there before. And I don't think they play enough defense. But I have to put them here.

That's the list. Missing the cut of teams that CAN win it: Duke, Kansas, Missouri, Purdue, Clemson, Villanova, the mediocre Pac-10, the even worse SEC.

What do you think? A Big Ten Tournament preview will appear here early next week so stay tuned.