I’m going to risk a dip into the world of polling. I hope Mark Grebner isn’t reading.
The Rasmussen poll that’s drawn media attention does not really tell us who’s leading the Democratic race for governor. And Pete Hoekstra’s lead in the Republican primary could be just a whisper.
Yes, it’s that old “plus or minus” thing.
The Rasmussen poll that’s drawn media attention does not really tell us who’s leading the Democratic race for governor. And Pete Hoekstra’s lead in the Republican primary could be just a whisper.
Yes, it’s that old “plus or minus” thing.
The Rasmussen survey had a margin of error of plus or minus at least 4 points on both races. So that means any candidates within 8 points of each other aren’t necessarily leading or losing. They are within the margin of error.
Hoekstra’s 27 percent is 9 points above Rick Snyder’s 18 percent, so there is a Hoekstra “lead,” but, as Rasmussen’s Web site noted, he’s “barely ahead.” (The Rasmussen survey has a 95 percent confidence interval, which I won’t even try to explain here because I’m sure I’ll mess it up.)
On the Dem side, though, the candidates (Dillon 12 percent, Smith 10 percent, Bernero 8 percent) -- and none of the above (17 percent) -- are bunched so tightly that the only fair conclusion to draw is that Democrats aren’t excited about anyone.
