A visitor to the LSJ newsroom today remarked on the avalanche of political advertising in mid-Michigan and wondering what could have been achieved if the money were used for worthwhile endeavors.
Indeed, there is a growing body of research that argues political campaigns are pretty much meaningless. Once you know the macro situation — particularly the macro-economic situation — you will know how an election is going to turn out.
Via Jon Chait at The New Republic, here are the results of one such assessment — a formula that uses nothing of the political environment to predict that the Republicans will gain 45 U.S. House seats on Nov. 2.
The formula is pretty simple: In a federal mid-term election, expect the president’s party to lose seats, especially if it has a big majority and if the economy is bad.
This year’s statewide election has long been determined. Since Gov. Jennifer Granholm is a Democrat and the economy has struggled, the Dems are going to take a drubbing on Nov. 2. And the Dems are going to lose seats in the Michigan House because of that, and because they hold a sizable majority right now.
