Back in the summer, assessing the economic angst and anti-incumbent mood of the electorate, I surmised that the Republicans would gain control of the Michigan House in the Nov. 2 election. This would require a net gain of at least 13 seats from the GOP’s current total of 43. (56 seats in the 110-seat House provide outright control.)
Come September, I started to think the Dems would hold on. Part of my reconsideration centered on the 67th District now held by Rep. Barb Byrum, D-Onondaga. In summer, I figured Byrum would be in big trouble against Republican Jeff Oesterle.
Oesterle was pouring money into his own campaign. Byrum has made enemies in the insurance industry, which has money to spend, too. And then there’s the incumbency problem. I was told, though, by someone far more knowledgeable than myself that the insurance industry decided not to target Byrum for her work on Democratic plans to change insurance law. I thought if Byrum wins in her district, the expected GOP wave wouldn’t be big enough to sweep the Dems out of House control.
Well, the Gongwer News Service (subscription-only), has its updated analysis of the House elections. It says the GOP is, indeed, poised to reclaim the House. And even in Ingham County, the trends aren’t cheery for Dems.
Gongwer, for example, notes, too, the insurance industry pass on Byrum. Nevertheless, they only give her a “slight edge” over Oesterle.
In the adjacent 69th District, Gongwer says Rep. Mark Meadows, D-East Lansing, has an “edge” to retain his seat. What’s noteworthy there is that 69th wasn’t even on Gongwer’s watch list in the summer. It wasn’t expected to be close.
As matters stand, only Rep. Joan Bauer in the uber-Democratic 68th District of Lansing is expected to cruise to re-election among Ingham House Democrats. And remember, Ingham County is one of the most Democratic, one of the most liberal, counties in all of Michigan.
