Affirmative action ban moves to swing states

Note: Tim Johnson is a second-term senator from South Dakota. Thanks Laker for pointing that out.

The list of states on Ward Connerly's short list for a ballot proposal banning affirmative action reads like a GOP play book for 2008.

According to several news outlets, the states under consideration are: Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, Oregon, South Dakota and Utah. So let's look at these states, and why they make sense for Connerly and company.

First off, none are in the deep south. The biggest debate MCRI backers don't want to have is that of racism and segregation. Any confederate state voting on the proposal would crystallize the debate against a proposal around slavery, something Connerly probably wants to avoid.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada and Oregon are western states that have been trending Democratic. Each of them have big Democratic influences, and if the Western Democrats who gained so much prominence in 2006 continue to rise in 2008, it wouldn't be that surprising to see the Dems sweep these four states. An MCRI-style proposal is designed to get people out to the polls, specifically die-hard Republicans.

Nebraska and Utah are both solid GOP states. Neither have large minority populations, and it's hard to see these two states as anything other than number-builders, states one doesn't have to put much effort in to see a victory.

South Dakota and Missouri are the most politically interesting. South Dakota sees Democratic freshman Senator Tim Johnson defend his seat for the first second time, and the GOP have been chomping at the bit to try and take him out, particularly after ousting Tom Daschle in 2004. Republicans have got to be loving the idea of this ballot proposal bringing out their base.

Missouri is in the top tier of swing states. Had John Kerry spent any time at all there, he might have won the presidency. It will be very much in play this year, and Dems won't repeat 2004's mistake by forgetting about it. If this ballot proposal goes to the Show Me State, neither will the GOP.

I must point out, however, that Democrats could still buck the conventional logic and win big, despite an MCRI-style ballot proposal.

After all, that's exactly what happened a month ago.

Comments

[Laker03]

Tim Johnson will be attempting to gain his third term in 2008. He won his first in 1996, and then barely held off John Thune in 2002.

[Laker03]

Missouri has 11 electoral votes. Had John Kerry won there that gives him 263 electoral votes, still not enough to win. Plus he lost by more than twice as much (196,000) as Al Gore(79,000) did in Missouri.

As for ballot initiatives...the conventional wisdom about the gay marriage initiatives says they helped Bush win. But did they really?

In 2004 Kentucky, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, Montana, North Dakota, Oklahoma and Utah probably would have went for Bush even without those measures. Michigan voted for Kerry and for a ban, as did Oregon. Kentucky and Ohio voted for Bush and a ban.

Look deeper into Oregon and Ohio though. In Oregon the ban passed 57-43, yet Kerry still got a larger percentage of the vote than Al Gore (Kerry 52, Gore 47). Bush won Ohio in 2000 by 177,000 votes, but only by 118,000 votes in 2004 with higher turnout.

Ballot initiatives turn out voters on both sides,so Republicans push the civil rights initiatives at their own risk.

[Laker03]

Sorry about including Kentucky in that list twice. I had not meant to include them both, and got a little ahead of myself.