Monday odds and ends

Lots of stuff today, from the Indiana/North Carolina expectations preview to Dennis Lennox dropping out of the race for state rep to Gov. Jennifer Granholm's hospitalization. Let's get to it below the jump...

Granholm out of hospital, still in charge

After the governor was hospitalized, the LSJ was among the first to report that not only did Granholm not hand over power to Lt. Gov. John Cherry, constitutionally she couldn't.

Kathy Hoffman, head of the Associated Press' Lansing office, has a great look at the situation and why it might be difficult to craft an exception to the rule for short-term illnesses.

But setting aside the policy wonkishness for a sec, it's good to see the governor feeling well enough to go home. We continue to wish her the best.

N.C., Indiana expectations

It seems like the expectations game has materialized as Obama winning North Carolina and Clinton taking Indiana, each by less than 10.

I think if Obama wins Indiana, Clinton will have trouble staying in. That said, the next state to vote is West Virginia, where polls show Clinton up 30, followed by Kentucky - another huge Clinton state - and Oregon, tipped for Obama.

Arguably, however, Obama has more to lose than Clinton, primarily because he has no business not being the Dem nominee this fall. But consider what happens if Clinton can pull off the N.C. upset. The scenario would also mean she'd have to win Oregon in two weeks, where Obama leads by about 8 to 10 right now.

But imagine if she finishes by winning Pennsylvania, Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon and Puerto Rico, compared to Obama's Guam, Montana and South Dakota. She might even have a realistic shot at convincing the superdelegates to overturn the pledged delegate count.

Either way, Tuesday's primaries seem to present the last chance for this race to not go until June. Any Obama win in Indiana and a decent one in North Carolina, and I think the pressure for Clinton to drop will be extremely intense.

Elsenheimer in, Lennox out

You remember the 105th District's GOP primary race, the one of which I said watching would be "my biggest guilty pleasure this spring/summer"? JonBenet Ramsey's dad vs. Dennis Lennox? Well, the incumbent, Kevin Elsenheimer, spoiled the party.

Elsenheimer, as you will no doubt recall (and if you don't click the link and be refreshed) bailed out of a possible third and last state House term to run for Michigan's 4th Circuit Court of Appeals. Unfortunately for him, that didn't scare off other candidates with equal or better credentials.

I'm hearing from very reliable sources close to Elsenheimer that the numbers just didn't work in his judicial campaign, and that state GOP leaders who talked him into the judicial run in the first place talked him out of it. Something about a senior House leadership position he'd be in line for, then a 2010 senate race.

With Elsenheimer in, Lennox dropped out and endorsed him. No word yet from the Ramsey camp, but I've got to believe they're out.

Comments

[Say it's not true]

Ramsey v Lennox was set to be a free-for-all that would have been great to watch. It sounds like Elsenheimer with his long German name didn't have a chance against the better names of Howell and Doster - not to mention Kelly on the Democratic side. It looks like we will see Howard Walker challenge Elsenheimer in 2010 for state Senate.

[amac]

THIS is why Michigan was so eager to move its presidential primary date so early--because nobody expected the primaries held in April and May to have any decisive impact on the candidacies and everybody is shocked that Pennsylvanis, Indiana, etc. actually matter.

[Ricky]

North Carolina is gonna be good tomorrow night. 485,000 people have already voted, the vast majority have that early voted voted Democratic.

40 percent of the early vote was African-American and 60 percent was female. The biggest Dem turnout ever was in 1984, and that wasn't even a million people.

From the Tar Heel State, don't expect a surprise. For all of the talk you've heard about Bill Clinton's efforts, most of his speeches are in front of about 1,000 people. And a lot of those people are there for the history, not necessarily a desire to vote for his wife.

[JRS]

Predictions: Obama wins North Carolina

Clinton wins Indiana but it is much
closer than expected.

Result - the race goes on until June at least.