The expectations game and odds and ends

Lots of stuff today, including a look at the expectations out of Kentucky and Oregon, more on congressional ratings, and scandals involving AG Mike Cox and a state senator from Detroit.

Kentucky and Oregon

These two states are expected to split their votes tomorrow, with Clinton taking Kentucky by a massive margin and Obama winning Oregon by about 10 points. The worry I might have in Oregon, if I'm Team Obama, is that polls have been narrowing in the state and two separate polls showed that the race is a tie among people who have already voted.

Remember two weeks ago when Obama cruised in North Carolina, but Clinton barely won in Indiana? Yeah, this could be just like that, but in reverse.

Even if he loses both, Obama should crest a majority of pledged delegates. The expectation is that he will note the milestone, but not declare victory.

And they'll both be celebrating

Typically a campaign will choose a city in a state they're reasonably confident of winning. Like, hearkening back to my two weeks ago example, where Obama celebrated in Raleigh, N.C., while Clinton went to Indianapolis.

This time, Clinton will be in Louisville, KY, while Obama will be in Des Moines, Iowa. Yes, Iowa. The thought is that it represents the "full circle", from winning his first state to taking the lead for once and all in pledged delegates.

Congressional ratings

FYI, I'm not the only one doing that. Now, you knew that of course, but I figured I'd give you the thoughts from two others I saw. The two races are MI-07 (Tim Walberg vs. Mark Schauer) and MI-09 (Joe Knollenberg vs. Gary Peters).

Cook Political Report - MI-07 - Toss-up, MI-09 - Lean Republican
Rothenberg Political Report - MI-07 - Lean Republican, MI-09 - Lean Republican
Susan J. Demas - MI-07 - Lean Republican

Cook upgraded his rankings just before the special election in Mississippi, where a Dem knocked off a  Republican in a long-held GOP seat, the third such special election to go that way. Rothenberg's were updated about that time, while Demas, in a post Sunday, suggested that Walberg's incumbent advantage puts him in a stronger position against Schauer than he was against Sharon Renier, an under-funded organic farmer from Munith who held him to less than 50 percent in 2006.

Whoops!

Two political figures in a little bit of controversy this week.

First is Attorney General Mike Cox, who, according to a report in the Traverse City Record Eagle (easily my favorite Michigan paper not in the Gannett family, by the way) accepted a $2,500 contribution from Meijer's PAC, despite knowing he'd likely have to investigate them.

Second is state Sen. Buzz Thomas, D-Detroit, who was injured in a bar fight Saturday night. Thomas said he was hit while trying to break up a fight, the bar manager said one of Thomas' friends lunged at a bouncer and was pushed back into Thomas who fell and hurt his knee. Either way, Thomas is back at work and reportedly recovering from his injuries.

Comments

[amac]

Apparently everyone loves to jump aboard a bandwagon.....

unless you happen to reside in Kentucky, or West Virginia, or Indiana, or Pennsylvania, or Ohio, or Texas.......

[Michael Motta]

Well Wallbank, a good deed never goes unpunished.

I admire your calling a non-Gannett paper your Michigan fave.

So you're nominated to be the guy who writes up the official report about the Leslie J. Hurst Purges, and then blogs about what really happened.

You might get fired from Gannett, but maybe you could then work in TC, or if your acts prove heroic enough, maybe the Washington Post.

How about the Post during the winter and TC during the summer? Sounds nice to me!