LSJ Blogs: Capitol Journal by Scott Davis

Will high turnout hurt Bernero?

State election officials are predicting higher-than-normal turnout in Tuesday’s primary election. That’s both surprising in what has been a lackluster gubernatorial election year -- and potentially bad news for Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Virg Bernero.

While it’s true that Lansing’s mayor has surged ahead of House Speaker Andy Dillon in the polls, Bernero’s campaign likely was counting on a low turnout of core Bernero supporters -- union members and progressive interest groups -- to crush Dillon in the contest.

The 23 percent turnout that Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is predicting -- higher than the 19 percent in the 2008 primary -- could indicate a more widespread turnout that may benefit Dillon.

Still, it appears that Bernero now is effectively getting his message out to the public through outside TV ads and other campaign stumping. It’s not clear whether a higher turnout hurts his chances.

New poll: Bernero surges ahead

Up to now, the smart money has been on House Speaker Andy Dillon to grab the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. A new EPIC-MRA poll suggests that money wasn’t so smart.

In a poll released Wednesday, EPIC for the first time showed Lansing mayor Virg Bernero leaping ahead of Dillon 40 percent to 32 percent, with 28 percent of Democratic voters undecided.

The new polling suggests Bernero is making significant inroads in recent days with logistical support from union groups statewide that have endorsed him and with TV ads paid for by the Genesee County Democratic Party.

Obviously, with the high numbers of undecided voters, the outcome can go either way in Tuesday’s primary. As of July 18, Dillon had much more campaign cash on hand to make a big last-minute splash.

11th hour Manoogian witness points at Cox

As predicted, things are heating up for Attorney General Mike Cox in the final days of his bid to win the Republican gubernatorial nomination.

Cox this week is denying reports that he attended the infamous Manoogian Mansion party in Detroit in 2002, at which a stripper allegedly was assaulted by the wife of then-Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick. For the first time, someone who claims he was at the party has provided a sworn statement that Cox was present at the gathering.

Whether the party even occurred has been a subject of debate. Cox’s office later investigated the party and determined it was an urban myth. With seven days before the primary, the new claim, aired on WDIV-TV, may cause problems for Cox.

But Cox’s campaign officials dismiss the information, saying the witness, Wilson Kay, has convictions for drugs, arson, weapons and other charges.

"When I saw that a five-time felon put out a string of lies eight years after the supposed fact, I saw it as a desperate political attempt from someone who doesn't want Mike to be governor,” said Cox campaign manager Stu Sandler. “It's nonsense, and voters are smarter than this," he said. "It's complete and utter nonsense."

Cox is running against four other Republicans for the nomination.

Loss of federal money? Senate Republicans reach for the budget axe

 

Senate Republicans are making preparations to deal with the potential loss of $560 million in federal Medicaid money next year with -- you guessed it -- further deep cuts.

Back from a two-week summer break, Senate Republicans will be taking steps over the next several days to identify areas in next year’s budget to deal with that loss of money. According to the Associated Press, programs facing cuts may include universities, health care and revenue sharing for local governments.

The cuts would be on top of $1.3 billion in cuts and savings that the Senate already has passed to erase a shortfall for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1. That budget is now before the Democratic-controlled House, where some of the Senate measures face opposition.

Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop has insisted the tax increases not be included in next year’s budget.

To add to the drama, lawmakers still have not resolved a $300 million shortfall in the current budget year emerged nearly two months ago.

Is Hoekstra drinking the Tea??

U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra is aligning himself more closely with the Tea Party in a bid to pick up votes among disgruntled, fiscal discipline conservatives in his bid for governor.

This week, the Republican is joining Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, an outspoken critic of Democrat spending policies, as a founding member of the House Tea Party Caucus.

In recent days, Hoekstra has been facing TV ads from his GOP gubernatorial opponent, Attorney General Mike Cox, who says Hoekstra is not fiscally conservative.

Bernero, Snyder scrambling for support

In the last two weeks of the Michigan primary season, gubernatorial candidates are scrambling for votes wherever they can.

The Detroit News reports that Ann Arbor businessman Rick Snyder, a moderate candidate for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, is launching an outreach effort trying to coax independents and Democrats into voting for him.

Meanwhile, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero is rounding up last minute endorsements, including from the Equality Michigan Action Network, an advocacy group for gays, lesbians, and bisexual and transgender people, in an attempt to scare up campaign cash so he can get up a TV ad campaign up and running.

Bernero, by the way, has slightly narrowed over fellow Democrat House Speaker Andy Dillon, who is leading the race by nine percentage points. According to a recent poll by the Glengariff Group, Dillon is favored by 34.3 percent of Democratic primary, Bernero is favored by 25.1 percent.

Court: Prior medical marijuana use not protected

Medicinal marijuana user rights survived a setback today, when a Michigan appeals court ruled a person can be prosecuted for using marijuana medicinally before a law legalizing it took effect in 2009.

The court reversed a decision by a Tuscola County judge, who had dismissed charges against a man caught with nine plants and drug paraphernalia, the Associated Press reported. The person arrested claiming he was using the drug for medicinal purposes.

The appellate court ruled there is nothing in the law allowing it to be applied retroactively.

By the way, if you’re upset by the ruling, by all means DO NOT reach for the laughing gas. Cops this week arrested a Hastings dentist for allegedly using the dental agent for personal use.

Bernero campaign: Where are his TV ads?

For weeks, political observers have been monitoring the TV airwaves, looking for signs of life from Lansing mayor Virg Bernero’s gubernatorial campaign.

The fact that his only Democratic opponent – House Speaker Andy Dillon – has been running multiple statewide TV ads, while there have been no ads from the Bernero camp, has been seen as a key weakness of  the mayor’s campaign.

For now, Bernero is getting a boost from the Genesee County Democratic Party, which this week is running a statewide TV ad for Bernero that praises his job creation record in Lansing, while blasting Dillon for helping to run a company that slashed jobs nearly a decade ago.

The usual cries of indignation ensued, as Dillon’s officials claimed the ad greatly distorted Dillon’s record. Officials have contended that Dillon had no role in slashing jobs while working at Wynnchurch Capital.

What’s more interesting is the question of why Bernero’s campaign, up to now, is relying on outside groups for TV ads. Is there campaign that cash starved? Bernero’s camp says they are waiting for the last stretch to run TV ads.

I’d say we’re getting darn close to that last stretch to that Aug. 3 primary.

Report: State's private sector loses 70 times more jobs than public sector

As the budget cutting debate continues in Lansing, most government employees can at least take solace in one thing: Most of them still have their jobs.

In a blog today by James Hohman of the Mackinac Center for Public Policy, he notes that Michigan's private sector has lost 70 times more jobs than its government sector since 2007.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are now 388,100 fewer Michigan's private sector payroll jobs, while government payrolls in Michigan (this includes city, state and federal employees) are down by just 5,400 jobs.

The loss of private sector jobs seems staggering and perhaps explains why so many residents have been leaving the state.

Naturally, some bloggers are saying these figures suggest public sector employees have emerged from the recession relatively unscathed. State employees who have taken wage cuts and furloughs, however, might disagree.

Bernero continues to demand Dillon debates

With three weeks left until the Democratic gubernatorial primary election, Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero is continuing to bark out challenges for further debates to his opponent, House Speaker Andy Dillon.

 “I am appalled and offended that my opponent has backed out of his commitment to three debates,” Bernero said. “With no legislative session scheduled until July 21, voters are being robbed of the opportunity to compare the candidates.”

Trailing in the polls, Bernero is hoping further debates will help close the gap between him and Dillon. Last week, the candidates had their second – and last scheduled – one-on-one debate.

Dillon, for his part, contends he never made a commitment to further debates in July and notes that he and Bernero have made six joint appearances together in recent months.

Expect more “debate” on further debates in the coming days.