Preseason picks revisited: The rest is gravy

Quick announcement: The Spartans are taking off from Breslin Center at 4:45 p.m. Wednesday, for anyone who wishes to stop by and send them off.

    I thought this would be a good time to revisit my preseason picks. I'd forgotten them to an extent, and when I looked again, I realized that this team has essentially met my October expectations. I had MSU going 27-10 overall and losing in the Sweet Sixteen. I had MSU sharing the Big Ten title with Indiana at 13-5. So the big mistake was underestimating Wisconsin, as just about everyone did. The only Big Ten game MSU lost that I didn't pick was the Iowa game.
    The extra game is there because I had MSU in the Big Ten tourney final game before losing to Indiana. Of course, the semifinals loss to Wisconsin was the actual title game. Here are the picks, exactly as they ran in our preview section:

MSU beat reporter Joe Rexrode predicts the Spartans will go 27-10 this season, sharing the Big Ten title with Indiana, losing to the Hoosiers in the Big Ten Tournament final, and reaching the Sweet Sixteen of the NCAA Tournament.

* W Tonight in East Lansing: The Spartans open the CBE Classic against a pesky, quick Chicago State team. Record: 1-0

* W Wednesday in East Lansing: Tom Izzo beats alma mater Northern Michigan to advance to the CBE semifinals. Record: 2-0

* W Monday in Kansas City: MSU gets past Missouri’s frenetic press, barely, in the CBE semis. Record: 3-0

* L Nov. 20 in Kansas City: Loaded UCLA gives the Spartans a wake-up call in the CBE title game. Record: 3-1

* W Nov. 24 in East Lansing: A dangerous Oakland team full of mid-Michigan kids plays well in Breslin. Record: 4-1

* W Nov. 28 in East Lansing: MSU does its part against N.C. State in the Big Ten’s futile “challenge” with the ACC. Record: 5-1

* W Dec. 1 in East Lansing: The Spartans take care of Jacksonville in advance of a tough two-game road trip. Record: 6-1

@ L Dec. 4 in Peoria, Ill.: Daniel Ruffin and the Bradley Braves ambush the Spartans at rocking Carver Arena. Record: 6-2

@ L Dec. 8 in Salt Lake City: Big man Trent Plaisted leads BYU to some revenge for last year’s blowout loss to MSU. Record: 6-3

* W Dec. 15 in East Lansing: Those warm, inviting letters – IPFW – spell relief for the reeling Spartans. Record: 7-3

* W Dec. 19 in East Lansing: The WAC is a solid league, but San Jose State is one of its worst teams. Record: 8-3

* W Dec. 22 in Auburn Hills: Texas is still loaded without Kevin Durant, but MSU scraps for a close win at The Palace. Record: 9-3

* W Dec. 29 in East Lansing: A home victory over Wisconsin-Green Bay sends the Spartans into 2008 and Big Ten play. Record: 10-3

* W Jan. 5 in East Lansing: What’s this? Minnesota? A league opener at home against an inferior opponent? It’s been a while. Record: 11-3

* W Jan. 8 in East Lansing: Purdue has young talent, but not enough to pull the upset in front of the Izzone. Record: 12-3

@ W Jan. 12 in Iowa City: The depleted Hawkeyes usually play MSU tough at home, but this is too big a chore. Record: 13-3

* W Jan. 15 in East Lansing: The Spartans take care of an Ohio State team that looks vastly different this year. Record: 14-3

* W Jan. 20 in Minneapolis: Tubby Smith has the Gophers playing solid ball, but the Spartans grind one out in Williams Arena. Record: 15-3

* W Jan. 24 in Evanston, Ill.: The schedule keeps on giving. MSU bombs Northwestern for its 10th straight win and a 6-0 Big Ten start. Record: 16-3

* W Jan. 27 in East Lansing: The Spartans run wild in their only meeting with rival Michigan this season. Record: 17-3

* W Jan. 30 in East Lansing: MSU’s winning streak hits a dozen against a middling Illinois team. Record: 18-3

* L Feb. 2 in State College, Pa.: Shocker alert. MSU’s hopes of a 9-0 record for the first half of the Big Ten schedule are dashed by the upstart Nittany Lions. Record: 18-4

* W Feb. 9 in East Lansing: After a week to stew on their loss to Penn State, the Spartans unload on Northwestern. Record: 19-4

* L Feb. 12 in West Lafayette, Ind.: A week in the state of Indiana starts off poorly for MSU with a loss to the improving Boilermakers. Record: 19-5

* L Feb. 16 in Bloomington, Ind.: The favorites finally meet, and Indiana pulls into a first-place tie in an ESPN “GameDay” featured event. Record: 19-6

* W Feb. 20 in East Lansing: The Spartans get revenge on Penn State to reach 20 wins and improve to 10-3 in conference play. Record: 20-6

* W Feb. 23 or 24 in East Lansing: MSU can name its score against the lowly Iowa Hawkeyes. Record: 21-6

* L Feb. 28 in Madison, Wis.: MSU begins a tough closing stretch – three out of four on the road – with another road loss to Bo Ryan’s Badgers. Record: 21-7

* W March 2 in East Lansing: Temporarily knocked from first place, the Spartans move into a tie with Indiana by edging the Hoosiers at home. Record: 22-7

* W March 4, 5 or 6 in Champaign, Ill.: MSU keeps pace by beating Illinois in Assembly Hall – the Spartans’ least-favorite venue – for the first time since 2002. Record: 23-7

* L March 9 in Columbus, Ohio: An outright championship is pulled from MSU’s grasp by Ohio State. The Spartans finish 13-5 and tied with Indiana. Record: 23-8

* W March 14 in Indianapolis: The Big Ten Tournament begins with the No. 2 seed Spartans squeaking past No. 7 seed Illinois. Record: 24-8

@ W March 15 in Indianapolis: The Spartans get past the only league team they didn’t beat in the regular season – Wisconsin – and advance to the tourney final for the first time since 2000. Record: 25-8

L March 16 in Indianapolis: In the rubber match everyone has been hoping to see, Indiana gets past the Spartans with the aid of a red-heavy crowd. Record: 25-9

W March 20 in Washington, D.C.: A No. 3 seed in the East Regional, MSU takes out No. 14 seed St. Joseph’s in the first round. Record: 26-9

W March 22 in Washington, D.C.: MSU reaches its seventh Sweet Sixteen in 11 years by nipping No. 6 seed Gonzaga in a thriller. Record: 27-9

L March 27 in Charlotte, N.C.: The Spartans’ regular season isn’t quite good enough to get a regional spot in Detroit, so they fall to No. 2 seed Georgetown in the East Regional semifinals – a game short of getting a rematch with North Carolina. Final record: 27-10

    So there you go, a 31-4 record, I believe (not counting the Big Ten Tourney title game that never happened). Even had an A-10 team from Philly for the first round, just the wrong one. If the Spartans beat Memphis on Friday to get to the South Regional final, they will have officially exceeded the expectations of this observer. For whatever the heck that's worth.

Comments

[SpartyOn]

quite remarkable, actually. What are your preseason picks for this weeks lotto numbers?

[markv]

Joe, now you just have to make sure you make bets with your spouse on these things.

Time for me to go and do the dishes now...

[SpartyParty]

Pretty impressive, Joe. Even your tag lines called correctly down the stretch about improving Purdue, etc. Now, how do you feel about Friday?

p.s. Thanks for a great year of insight, journalism, and fun blogs so far!

[Steve]

Joe, yours is the message I've been focused on when frustrated, sometimes irrational, voices here assume we're predestined to run the table month after month, year after year. It isn't over yet, and we have met or exceeded just about anybody's reasonable expectations of a very nicely talented, but not dominant, team. Yet again MSU hoops stands tall on a national stage...more to come! I think Memphis knows they'll have their hands full against our guys.

[Spartan95]

Given this team's chronic Big Ten road woes, I'll be interested to see if that influences next seasons picks. Any predictions for who the new Hoosier guy will be?

[Spartan in St Augustine]

Joe, very nice article on Goran and, as I said over there; he and Drew(the red) have really quelled all the lack of consistency blogging about the Spartan Bigs. Let's hope M. Gray joins that party this year. I also would like to thank you, as Markv did, for this blog and your wonderful reporting all year (football, too).

[Ben Green]

Your articles consistently display your knowledge. It is further demonstrated by your preseason picks. Good job!

[dr muffin]

Edging the Hoosiers at home?
not even close.
Seriously, how about some help with my brackets next year

[buddy j]

ESPN has Lunardi. Spartans have Rexrode. What else can you say?

[spartanforever]

WHY I HATE (well not really)JOE DUMARS: First it has to do with Kalin Lucas:This kid has been ignored,disrespected and even maligned,but thru it all his action is speaking for him.There is much to his game and like a running back-you just can't teach what he is capable of doing.I think he has learned a lot this season,but he has things he has not used yet that he could offer.We are down to the point where you just let them go do what they do best-we can benefit while being pleasantly surprised. Summers and allen should loom big in this game and Drew might not have a great game vs,Memphis.They likely are thinking,"we stop Drew and we stop 60-70% of their offence,they depend on him so much."If Drew leaves it on the court and stays in perpetual motion (like j.j.reddick did)-making other things happen-we can win handily:Depend on Drew and we can be embarassed.We need to continue to play as a team,whoever shoots when the opportunity presents itself and stay true to solid "D." Kalin is already right there with Magic and Cleaves:they had a little more 'over all game,'and we have have not seen Kalins full game ,because he has had to share his playing time.I see his steals ,assists rebounds and speed/overall play as looming big:turn the kid loose.Magic was so-so SPECIAL we can't quite get over what he ment to us and the game (it can be argued -he was the greatest ever):Mateen (and I say his father)gave us a gift when we had no hope of winning:Kalin brings us renewed vigor,maintenance and that spark we need to get it done.Make no mistake if we are to make it to the final two-it will be because of him.Cleaves lead his team,inspired them-Kalin is poised to lead this team-NOW!.Coach is most loyal to seniors and remember Drew started as a freshman-it just works that way.Lets forget these formalitys and get the guys on the court that are going to get it done "this" season(we'll handle the future when it gets here). Now regarding Dumars:This guy chose Cleaves then scapegoated him and threw him under the bus and screwed his NBA career.I hated that pick,because I knew that was the kiss of doom for our boy cleaves.I wanted so bad for the Lakers to pick him,and they surely would have,because they needed a special guard at that time.Remember they had all stars all over the place and scorers,and they needed a solid point guard.Cleaves was perfect for them-he did not have to score,just pass,defend,and spread his enthusiasm to an allstar cast.The rest is history of course-everyone trys to get a scorer out of their point guard.That Laker team would have defeated the Pistons,but Dumars did his job Ironically-I think he saw what I saw...True chances other teams might have taken Cleaves but I think he would have fell to the Lakers and he would have won over that team I guarantee you!

[TDP]

spartanforever - WTF??

I love Mateen as much as the next Sparty but please don't tell me he would have been a franchise player if he had fallen to the Lakers instead of the Pistons (I think that's the point of your comment, I just can't be sure it was so long).

Mateen had plenty of chances with the Pistons, Sonics, and about 5 other teams that he played with and/or had 10-day contracts with. The bottom line is that Mateen was a great college player and that's about it.

Its hard to say that because when we think of our PG's on National Championship teams, we expect them to all turn out like Magic. I wish Mateen all the luck in the world (did anybody else see he scored 43 pts in a D-league game last week?) but some people are meant to be legends on the collegiate level only.

[markv]

I actually got through his whole post this time, and i can summarize that he doesn't think Cleaves would have been a franchise player, but that he would have developed as an Eric Snow type of successful player (but with more smiles and hoorays). Some people thrive as focal points, other people thrive as role players. The missing factor in the whole rant, er post, is that Cleaves never seemed to have his full mobility back when he got to the NBA.

Neitzel is still a long shot because of his size, but after seeing him expand his range and play a little defense the past couple weeks, i'm wondering if maybe it's possible he could have an NBA career after all.

[mike]

At first I got a little peeved at spartanforever posting but I've got say I love your enthusiasm. Bet your a riot to watch a game with. Go Green!

[burtybob]

Three MSU's....

Sunday
MEMPHIS [formely STATE] U. beat
MISSISSIPPI STATE U. but Friday will lose to
MICHIGAN STATE U.

[xwing]

this is way off topic but this article is too funny:

http://freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080326/SPORTS06/80326079/1048/SPORTS

looks like trouble in paradise :)

[spartanforever]

Thanx for the critiques...you are right I don't think Cleaves would have been "MAGICaNEU" but that his skill set would have fit there. Re:Boren -Iwish the young man all the best,despite his poor initial judgement.OSU is already sending a fact finding crew out to find how to stop r,r,and we have to respect him and do the same.Re:Drew-I think he can make it but he has to get fire in his belly and a chip on his shoulder...He has to get in real condition and move all the time like Steve Nash-right now he's just a nice kid who wants...he has to go take it.Spartans with blood and guts for heart:MAGIC,ED Smith,Joe Dellamaliere,Steve Garvey,Walt Kawalchek,L.Chadnoise,Don Coleman,BUBBA SMITH,ROBAIRE SMITH,J.Petersen,J.Shansky,B,VanPelt.Flozel Smith,THE SNOW BROTHERS,Lorenzo White,and for give me the list,I'm sure would bore some of us-this is what our young Mr.Neitzel has to get -he has it,will he bring it to surface????Best wishes to him no matter what...and don't be surprised if some one gives our other DREW a chance,now he wants it and has the swagger right now -I think he picks up his game from here on,and its been preetty darn good-this team is teeming with over the top contributions from here out...

[spartanforever]

Sorry Flozel I did means 'Adams' (dal,cowboys and remember Billy Joe Dupree-all pro tight end with the cowboys).The point being-there is no shortage of former Spartans to emulate,and I hope DREW,this summer gets that chip on his shoulder,because he will be doubted.

[xwing]

a couple of nba mock drafts:

http://www.nbadraft.net/index.asp?content=mock2008

http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-mock-draft/2008/

i think that unless nietzel blows up in a couple more of these tournament games he has no shot at being drafted. he is only 6-0 tall and you have to be a real special player to get drafted and be that short today in the nba. in fact, D.J. Augustin (5-11)is the only player that short who is projected to get drafted(collison out of ucla is 6-1).

[xwing]

hey mr. rexrode just following up with your "slow slogging spartans"

do you think msu should and will run with memphis?

judging by CDR's comments he is pretty confident that running benefits them:

http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2008/mar/26/coach-says-spartans-will-run-with-tigers/

[Michael Motta]

For others having trouble with xwing's earlier FreeP link - it looks like a single digit in the URL has been changed, for whatever reason: http://freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080327/SPORTS06/80326079/1048/SPORTS

I thought the "family values" angle Boren gave was a strange phrase for the context. Often "family values" means something to do with religion, or at least morals generally speaking, and sometimes "family values" simply means valuing family. I was expecting the story to be related to one of these things. I thought maybe RR was messing around with players being able to go home to see their families more often, or maybe he was cursing a lot and Lloyd wasn't big on this. But it sounds more like it's a personal gripe with the conditioning program and/or the manner in which the offense is being run.

I just don't see UM gaining back much, if any of the ground Carr may have lost over the past several years. Same with Notre Dame, Weis, and Willingham. Especially with so much TV and internet coverage nowadays, even of non-BCS conferences (not to mention there are a lot more teams in D-IA/FBS than there used to be), the Notre Dames and Michigans of the world won't be able to restake claims of being the end-all of big time football. The playing field is leveling, which doesn't mean some programs can't be better than others, but it does signal the twilight of dynasty.

[Calipari is God]

I hear Calipari just bought a choke chain for his new dog Izzo.

Get ready for a whooping Michigan State, armPitt was no test. The Tigers will destroy this Lil' 10 school JV team.

[DoctorWorm]

Don't respond. How do they keep finding this blog? I swear Joe, you've got the center of the college sports universe right here. I'm suspicious that this is the same guy as "Jalen Rose", "Bo Owns Izzo", etc.

We've certainly seen enough of this.

[Doctor has Worms]

I'm suspicious that DoctorWorm took that name because he likes to weed himself into dark, cold, muddy holes. You phucking fairy, GO TIGERS!!!!!!!

[burtybob]

re xwing's comment on Neitzel being a long shot for the draft...
You must be too young to remember "little" Scott Skiles & his NBA career. Still the single game assist leader - 28 I think - when he played with Shaq at Orlando. Not only can he handle the ball and pass, but Neitzel CAN hit the Long Shot.

[David]

Hey Caligula lover, your depth is going to sink you. We'll run you and FT you to the bottom of the pool.