So it's Memphis
At one point, watching the Memphis-Mississippi State game today, I thought to myself: "The Spartans should hope Memphis pulls this out."
The Tigers did, because when it comes down to it, few teams in the nation have more talent. Few teams have more depth. No one has two creators like Derrick Rose and Chris Douglas-Roberts. When it was over, I thought maybe that what I thought before should be re-thought. Just a thought.
But I still think, at first blush, that this is a pretty good matchup for the Spartans. Turnovers are always important for this team, but they will be even more important in this game. Memphis will be aggressive and try to force MSU into mistakes. If the Spartans don't make them, they'll get good shots.
On the other end, limit Rose and CDR. Kalin Lucas/Travis Walton on Rose. Raymar Morgan/Walton on CDR, with hopes that Morgan avoids those cheap fouls early. And in this game, MSU's entire personnel group will be needed. The freshmen off the bench. Ibok. Marquise Gray could really be a factor here. MSU has the bodies to throw at Memphis, but only if they're used.
The Pitt game didn't actually live up to its billing. I thought it might be a classic, last-possession type game. Friday's MSU-Memphis game really should turn out that way. But hey, we've got all week to talk about this.
Does anyone recall the recruitment story on CDR. Was he a prospect in HS? Did MSU go after him? If not, why not? There has to be a story there
Posted by: spartanmartin | March 23, 2008 at 10:28 PM
Careful what you wish for. :)
Posted by: Fred | March 23, 2008 at 11:16 PM
haha delvin roe? a definate prospect...we will be good next year also. Who is lookin into final four tix next year?
Posted by: griff325 | March 23, 2008 at 11:17 PM
This is a much less sophisticated analysis/theory, but I agree...Memphis is the better matchup.
MSU tends to play up or down to the competition. And given their blowout-heavy schedule, Memphis is likely to get the yips if MSU gives them a tough, close game or pull out to a big lead.
Plus, I think State's a #1 seed in #5's clothing anyway. Izzo 4 Life.
Posted by: John Sheldon | March 23, 2008 at 11:32 PM
...well, maybe a #2 seed in that #5 shirt. Rexrode 4 Life.
Posted by: John Sheldon | March 23, 2008 at 11:34 PM
an interesting article on memphis http://cbs.sportsline.com/collegebasketball/story/10732930
he says memphis might be the most flawed #1 seed in several years. if msu's big men play physical and play defense like they have been playing i don't see why msu can't win.
Posted by: xwing | March 23, 2008 at 11:41 PM
spartanmartin:
i can tell you CDR was a 4 star recruit according to rivals in 2005 when he came out. i guess msu was too busy going after walton and joseph :) seriously msu had a rough year recruiting in 2005. i hope izzo can build a solid 2009 class as msu's 07' & 08' classes were very good. a final four run might help solidify that...
Posted by: xwing | March 23, 2008 at 11:50 PM
Xwing,
08 Class is great, 09 so far is lite. Hope that changes after the tournament. I'm concerned we are losing out on some Detroit HS kids that should definitely be thinking about MSU. I think we'll need another solid PG in 09 because we'll lose KL after his sophomore year.
And I agree, we should be able to beat Memphis. We were a preseason 1 seed (worst a 2 seed). If we play to that potential which is how we are trending we'll be with Memphis start to finish. We need them to continue to shoot poorly from the free throw line and we win. Because we'll shoot better and all other things being equal win the game. Forgot to mention that our bench has to be as good as their bench. If that happens we'll win because of free throw shooting.
Posted by: spartaninboston | March 24, 2008 at 12:01 AM
izzo time of year .... again
how awesome is it to see this team start to play to their potential. just imagine if we wouldn't have had so many fouls/15 to's against pitt. look out tigers ....
beating that texas team in houston will be really tough though!
Posted by: Izzo '08 | March 24, 2008 at 12:02 AM
griff325,
The lottery for 2009 is open through end of May. I'm planning to buy 4 sets of tix just to be safe. Bought two last year and neither came through so was out little money. Want to up my chances since I think MSU makes deep run next year too. We should look like Memphis next year but better.
Posted by: spartaninboston | March 24, 2008 at 12:03 AM
spartaninboston
i think KL is too small to be a real high nba pick. not to say he can't be really good at the next level, but just that it seems unlikely he'll be a first rounder.
Posted by: Izzo '08 | March 24, 2008 at 12:05 AM
Izzo'08,
Two comments....
When we beat Memphis (I know I'm being optimistic - but only way to be), we'll have confidence going into Elite 8. Which will make playing Texas easier.
And second, KL will look at out dueling Augustine as his mission. Which is just what we want, for him to come in wanting to shine over Augustine. Since Augustine is getting national props and KL isn't.
I'm more concerned about UCLA in Final Four.
Posted by: spartaninboston | March 24, 2008 at 12:06 AM
In Izzo's defense, I believe that 2005 was the year we had the kid decommit and go to Syaracuse. He was kind of scrambling after that one.
Posted by: James | March 24, 2008 at 12:06 AM
Izzo'08,
Excuse me for ignorance but why wouldn't KL look as good as Rose from Memphis, Augustine from Texas, or Gordon from IU coming out as a sophomore vs. them as freshman? And was Connolly that much better out of OSU?
If you are right and he stays at MSU for a couple more years then we are set, since he is going to be a consistent double digit scorer and with Lucious backing him up next year, wow..... finally good PG depth.
Posted by: spartaninboston | March 24, 2008 at 12:09 AM
What drugs are you people on? We have to hope Memphis plays horribly because there is no way we play like we did in the two games and beat Memphis if they don't self destruct.
Did you see the Pittsburgh game? Did you see the lazy Spartan passes and easy picks Pitt made that went for an easy 2? Did you see the shot clock violations the Spartans still routinely commit? Against a vastly overrated Big East team like Pitt, with tired legs, these flaws were not fatal and the refs also came to our rescue in the final minutes. Now imagine a team that is not offensively challenged, like Pitt, has equal speed and tenacity, and has several days to rest some weary legs. That is what we face in Memphis.
Does anyone remember how the Dee Brown Illinois teams would embarrass us? That is the kind of demolition we might experience playing Memphis. It could get ugly.
Posted by: Scott Skiles | March 24, 2008 at 12:45 AM
So now I have to pick between watching the spartans on tv and using my tickets to go see wisky vs. davidson / kansas vs. villanova.
Why the flip couldn't they have just put MSU in the midwest? Oh well, near home court for the final four will be sweet next year.
Posted by: SpartyOn | March 24, 2008 at 12:48 AM
Scott Skiles, you call yourself a spartan? Where is your moronic optimism? You make it sound like we're playing God on friday.
Posted by: SpartyOn | March 24, 2008 at 12:50 AM
No question, MSU will have to be at their absolute best to beat Memphis. But that is possible. Memphis also has holes-they do not shoot well outside of 15 feet and their free throw misery is well documented.
The comparison to Illinois' great teams is not accurate, in my opinion. Those teams were lethal shooters from everywhere. Memphis is its own challenge-strong defensively, great at driving the ball, and two great finishers in CDR and Rose.
To be sure, Memphis will be favored. But this isn't UNLV 1990. State can win this game if they start strong, hang around, and make Memphis hit clutch shots. Only a couple of teams have been able to do that to Memphis all year. One of them won.
State can (I'm saying can, not necessarily will) be the second.
Posted by: rook34 | March 24, 2008 at 01:05 AM
CD-R was heavily recruited by MSU. At the time we were loaded in the backcourt and Memphis could give him immediate playing time as coach Cal was just building his team. He chose the playing time.
Posted by: Fresh | March 24, 2008 at 02:27 AM
It's March, It's MSU, It's Tommy Izzo, do the math........
Posted by: Rick Milch | March 24, 2008 at 04:18 AM
Let me be the first..... MSU in the Sweet Sixteen..... Again......
Posted by: Rick Milch | March 24, 2008 at 04:40 AM
I think if we can prevent bonehead turnovers and keep RM out of his early foul trouble, we are in for a great game. Memphis is good at getting takeaways, and no doubt they have seen film of us coughing it up in our losses. I think they are going to try to exploit that, and be all over Walton when he's on offense. Still, I have a feeling that State is going to pull this one out--as long as we don't beat ourselves.
Posted by: nycspartan | March 24, 2008 at 05:59 AM
Kalin Lucas is the best freshman Izzo has ever had.
Joe Rexrode - I looked at the stats - Memphis only played 6 people basically. How can you say they have amazing depth? They're gonna get exhausted and run out of the building especially with our 30 fouls to give.
Posted by: David | March 24, 2008 at 07:45 AM
Spartanmartin, if I remember correctly CDR was not a model student in H.S. on and off the court and I think thats why Izzo and a lot of other schools backed off.
Posted by: KIing | March 24, 2008 at 07:49 AM
With the way the Big Ten Conference went, I've tried to keep my expectations down. I'm tickled we made the Sweet Sixteen , but this Memphis team is tough and has more talent then Temple and Pitt put together. So what I'm hoping for is we play them down to the wire and get lucky to win. In reality it will be an upset win in the B-Ball world.
Posted by: Barry TN | March 24, 2008 at 07:50 AM