Enough with the stars

On my pet peeve list, the obsession with "stars" in recruiting ranks pretty high, although not as high as the use of the word "supposably," and nowhere near as high as the widespread use of "that" instead of "who," as in: "He's the guy that was supposably a five-star recruit."

    I've watched the debate here over "stars" in relation to MSU's latest verbal commitment, and I can't take it anymore. First of all, recruiting rankings for the 2009 class mean little until this spring and summer. This is the time when juniors are closely evaluated on the AAU circuit, and the rankings you see in the next few months are guaranteed to be quite different than the previous rankings. These guys are finally on the "center stage" for recruiters and those who formulate rankings.
    I do believe there is value in basketball rankings, because all these kids compete against each other in the same events. It's totally different from and more reliable than football. That said, here are some "five stars" and "three stars" from 2004 that may interest you. This is the Rivals.com list (don't mean to pick on Rivals or any of these kids, just trying to prove a point).
Five stars:
Malik Hairston (No. 7 overall)
Earl Smith (No. 8 overall)
Joe Crawford (No. 9 overall)
Dorell Wright (No. 12)
Mike Williams (No. 20)
Marquise Gray (No. 21)

Three stars:
Rodney Stuckey (No. 131)
Chris Lofton (No. 146)
Goran Suton (No. 123)
Shan Foster (No. 82
Robert Dozier (No. 83)
Joseph Jones (No. 102)

    The No. 30 kid in the nation is a five-star, while the No. 81 kid is a three-star. Fifty kids separate the supposed cream of the crop and the "decent" or "solid" or "potentially good" prospects. That alone should convince you that classifying anyone as a "____-star recruit" is too simplistic. The above list illustrates the fact that rankings aren't foolproof (but again, they mean something. Among the top 20 of 2004: Dwight Howard, Shaun Livingston, Josh Smith, Al Jefferson, Glen Davis, Jawann McClellan).
    And all this is not to say that Derrick Nix will end up with a high ranking or live up to it at Michigan State. I'm not smart enough to have any idea about that. What I do know is, MSU offered him a scholarship because his game is coming together, he's getting in shape, they think that big frame (6-8, 285) can be a weapon some day. Supposedly, Ohio State, Pittsburgh and others were starting to show significant interest. And this is April of 2008. This is not a last-minute offer. This is not a "Plan B" pickup, because there's no reason at this point for MSU or any staff recruiting for 2009 to panic and throw out offers to anyone with a pulse.
    DaShonte Riley is, indeed, a "five-star" in the latest rankings, but all I've heard for the past year from people who have watched him play is that he's overrated, disinterested, whatever. It's just what I've heard. He may be a lottery pick two years from now and Nix may be a four-year bust. But you have to think the MSU staff feels good about Nix if it offered him a scholarship. And you have to remember how tough it is to pick the right big man.

    Florida took a couple of "four-stars" in that 2004 class that were supposably decent prospects -- Al Horford and Joakim Noah -- and won two NCAA championships with them.

Comments

[Michael Motta]

Nice analysis Joe, I'm pretty much on the same bus as you. But there's an addendum to this.

How about writing on the corporate media's own role in fueling the gaga over the stars (not to mention a thousand and one other artificially constructed "news items")?

[B Knapp]

I give this commentary 4 stars.

[B Knapp]

Another round of "The Pros and the Izzos" coming around: http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=Aggrrk1aiXaDeQhgsPBHBN68vLYF?slug=ys-bullscoach042208&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

[Dr.J]

Michael Rosenberg did a nice article 2-3 years ago about how the stars rating is influenced by the team who drafts the player as much as it is the player's performance. Also, the players who sign early generally go down in rankings, and the players who sign late go up in order to sell subscriptions.

It makes business sense to me.

[Chris]

Imagine if we had signed Al Horford instead of Marquise Gray. I can't believe quise was #21 overall. It's a shame he isn't able to stay healthy.

[oldspartan]

Great points Joe. All I'd add is that star rankings seem to be snapshots in time. Who's to say a kid's got room to grow/improve and who's to say a kid has peaked? They are all pretty much still developing as large kids after all. Two years is a long time when you're 15, 16 and 17 and still growing.

I have to trust people who do this all day and have much better eyes than I to see beyond stars and tarot cards.