Predictions revisited

It's time to check those preseason picks and see just how different reality turned out to be...

First, the Big Ten predictions:

After predicting each Big Ten game, State Journal reporter Joe Rexrode expects Michigan State to finish second in the league standings to Purdue, and for four Big Ten teams to reach the NCAA Tournament.

1.    Purdue
•    Last season: 25-9 overall, 15-3 Big Ten (2nd), NCAA Tournament second round
•    Coach: Matt Painter, fourth season
•    Key returnees: Robbie Hummel, so. F, E’Twaun Moore, so. G, Chris Kramer, jr. G
•    Key loss: Scott Martin, F
•    Top newcomer: Lewis Jackson, fr. G
•    Outlook: It’s true that the Boilermakers are transitioning from “hunter” to “hunted.” But don’t forget, this team has hunger after finishing a game behind Wisconsin last season – despite sweeping the Badgers. Martin’s transfer to Notre Dame hurts, but Jackson brings speed and all the other key pieces are back.
•    Projected Big Ten record: 15-3
•    NCAA: No. 3 seed

2.    Michigan State
•    Last season: 27-9, 12-6 (4th), NCAA Sweet Sixteen
•    Coach: Tom Izzo, 14th season
•    Key returnees: Kalin Lucas, so. G, Raymar Morgan, jr. F, Goran Suton, sr. C
•    Key loss: Drew Neitzel, G
•    Top newcomer: Delvon Roe, fr. F
•    Outlook: This is the Big Ten’s best team on paper. But that has been the case before in seasons that have seen someone else walk off with the hardware. If MSU finds the consistency that was absent last season, it could be one of Izzo’s best teams. If not, the Spartans still will push Purdue and have a chance at a run to the Final Four in Detroit.
•    Projected Big Ten record: 14-4
•    NCAA: No. 3 seed

      3. Wisconsin
•    Last season: 31-5, 16-2 (1st), NCAA Sweet Sixteen
•    Coach: Bo Ryan, eighth season
•    Key returnees: Marcus Landry, sr. F, Joe Krabbenhoft, sr. F, Trevon Hughes, jr. G
•    Key loss: Brian Butch, C
•    Top newcomer: Jordan Taylor, fr. G
•    Outlook: The safe bet just about every year is to pick Ryan and his Badgers to win the title. He has quite a run going in Madison. This team will be right there, especially if sophomore big man Keaton Nankivil is ready to step up. But the losses of Butch, Michael Flowers and Greg Stiemsma will be felt.
•    Projected Big Ten record: 13-5
•    NCAA: No. 6 seed

4.   Ohio State
•    Last season: 24-13, 10-8 (5th), NIT champions
•    Coach: Thad Matta, fifth season
•    Key returnees: David Lighty, jr. G, Evan Turner, so. G, Jon Diebler, so. G
•    Key loss: Kosta Koufos, C
•    Top newcomer: B.J. Mullens, fr. C
•    Outlook: Mullens may be Ohio State’s third straight, one-and-done, first-round big man. Some think he’ll be the top pick in the 2009 draft. He joins a team that lost Koufos, Jamar Butler and big men Othello Hunter and Matt Terwilliger. But the perimeter is loaded and frosh William Buford may star right away. Point guard is a question, but Matta should be able to make an NCAA return.
•    Projected Big Ten record: 11-7
•    NCAA: No. 9 seed

5.    (tie) Penn State
•    Last season: 15-16, 7-11 (7th), no postseason
•    Coach: Ed DeChellis, sixth season
•    Key returnees: Jamelle Cornley, sr. F, Talor Battle, so. G, Stanley Pringle, sr. G
•    Key loss: Geary Claxton, F
•    Top newcomer: Chris Babb, fr. G
•    Outlook: Claxton blew out his knee and missed most of last season, robbing DeChellis of a breakthrough. This team can get him into the upper division with a healthy Cornley, speedy playmakers in Battle and Pringle, and developing forwards in David Jackson and Andrew Jones III. This is not the same old Penn State, folks.
•    Projected Big Ten record: 9-9
•    NCAA: Not quite, but the Nittany Lions will jump at the NIT

5.    (tie) Minnesota
•    Last season: 20-14, 8-10 (6th), NIT first round
•    Coach: Tubby Smith, second season
•    Key returnees: Al Nolen, so. G, Damian Johnson, jr. F, Lawrence Westbrook, jr. G
•    Key loss: Lawrence McKenzie, G
•    Top newcomer: Ralph Sampson III, fr. F
•    Outlook: McKenzie and fellow departed seniors Dan Coleman and Spencer Tollackson take a lot of production and leadership with them. But Smith has a talented five-man class coming in for a team that should be deep and defensively gritty. Sampson and freshman big man Colton Iverson come with accolades.
•    Projected Big Ten record: 9-9
•    NCAA: A narrow miss for the second straight year

7. Illinois
•    Last season: 16-19, 5-13 (t-9th), no postseason
•    Coach: Bruce Weber, sixth season
•    Key returnees: Demetri McCamey, so. G, Chester Frazier, sr. G, Trent Meacham, sr. G
•    Key loss: Shaun Pruitt, C
•    Top newcomer: Alex Legion, fr. G
•    Outlook: When Legion, a transfer from Kentucky, is eligible to play in late December, it will help a team that lost Jamar Smith over the summer to more alcohol-related trouble. Pruitt and Brian Randle are gone, leaving Illinois’ frontcourt in the hands of youngsters. Weber’s recruiting is taking off, but he’ll have to suffer through another rough season.
•    Projected Big Ten record: 8-10
•    NCAA: No, for the second straight year

8.    Michigan
•    Last season: 10-22, 5-13 (t-9th), no postseason
•    Coach: John Beilein, second season
•    Key returnees: Manny Harris, so. G, Deshawn Sims, jr. F, Zack Gibson, jr. F
•    Key loss: Ekpe Udoh, F
•    Top newcomer: Laval Lucas-Perry, fr. G
•    Outlook: Michigan will be better in its second season under Beilein, although the transfer of Udoh is a big shot to the interior defense. Lucas-Perry, a transfer from Arizona, brings quickness. Freshman guards Stu Douglass and Zack Novak can shoot it, giving this offense some badly needed help. Harris can get into the lane at will. Sims’ willingness to work inside will be a key.
•    Projected Big Ten record: 7-11
•    NCAA: No, but an NIT bid is a realistic pursuit.

9.    Iowa
•    Last season: 13-19, 6-12 (8th), no postseason
•    Coach: Todd Lickliter, second season
•    Key returnees: Cyrus Tate, sr. F, Jarryd Cole, so. F, Jake Kelly, so. G
•    Key loss: Tony Freeman, G
•    Top newcomer: Matt Gatens, fr. G
•    Outlook: Freeman, last season’s junior star, shockingly transferred to Southern Illinois in the offseason thanks to a conflict with Lickliter. That hurts a team that already had trouble manufacturing points. Tate is a solid player (ask MSU), and Cole can make a huge impact if he’s fully recovered from last season’s knee injury. But Lickliter is still a few players short.
•    Projected Big Ten record: 6-12
•    NCAA: No, for the fifth time in seven years.

10.    Northwestern
•    Last season: 8-22, 1-17 (11th)
•    Coach: Bill Carmody, ninth season
•    Key returnees: Kevin Coble, jr. F, Craig Moore, sr. G, Michael Thompson, so. G
•    Key loss: None
•    Top newcomer: John Shurna, fr. F
•    Outlook: Here it is – the Big Ten team that figures to make the biggest leap from last season to this season. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they can quintuple their wins and still be near the Big Ten basement. Carmody, one of the league’s good guys, does have some size coming in along with Shurna, a promising forward in the mold of Coble. The Wildcats will score some upsets.
•    Projected Big Ten record: 5-13
•    NCAA: The program continues to await its first bid.

11.    Indiana
•    Last season: 25-8, 14-4 (3rd)
•    Coach: Tom Crean, first season
•    Key returnee: Kyle Taber, sr. F
•    Key loss: Eric Gordon, G
•    Top newcomer: Verdell Jones III, G
•    Outlook: One of last season’s favorites is everyone’s pick for last – and perhaps as one of the worst teams the Big Ten has seen. Amazingly, 11 players from last season are gone, four dismissed for off-the-court behavior. Kelvin Sampson left a mess, but Tom Crean will clean it up eventually. It will be fun to see how much he can get out of this anonymous bunch.
•    Projected Big Ten record: 2-16
•    NCAA: Has seen enough of IU lately.

    Basically, I underestimated the Big Ten as a whole by projecting a four-bid scenario. I also underestimated Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan and Northwestern, although at least I said the Wildcats would be way better. I overestimated Purdue and Wisconsin, and was pretty close to accurate on the others. Hand, please pat back in regard to picking Penn State to surprise. Please slap self in face for picking Purdue to win it and Illinois and U-M to have losing league records.

    Now, even though the season isn't finished, let's look at those game-by-game picks. That could stretch the length of this entry to the range of last year's Penn State foul analysis, the Holy Grail of long-winded blogging. I'm darn close overall (picking 24-6 at this point), although many of the individual games were wrong (anyone else pick NW and PSU at the Bres?) The interesting thing is what may be ahead. Wisconsin in the semis and Purdue in the finals this week? No. 1 seed Pittsburgh in Indy in the regional final? Hmmmm......You may have to start calling me Joe "Miss Cleo" Rexrode. (Ignoring the fact, of course, that I projected Oklahoma as a No. 6 seed).

MSU beat reporter Joe Rexrode predicts the Spartans will go 30-7 this season, finish second in the Big Ten, extend their Breslin winning streak to 35 straight, win the Big Ten Tournament and reach the NCAA Tournament’s Elite Eight.

* W Sunday in East Lansing: The MSU football team opened with Idaho in 2006, so apparently it’s the basketball team’s turn. Record: 1-0

* W Wednesday in Fort Wayne, Ind.: It’s a risk to go play Dane Fife’s improving IPFW team on the road, but the Spartans get by. Record: 2-0

* W Nov. 27 in Orlando, Fla.: Got indigestion from the Lions’ annual Thanksgiving stuffing? MSU over Maryland acts as a natural Tums. Record: 3-0

* W Nov. 28 in Orlando, Fla.: The Spartans edge Gonzaga in the Old Spice Classic semifinals, in a matchup of top-10 teams. Record: 4-0

* W Nov. 30 in Orlando, Fla.: MSU’s depth pays off in a wild, open-court affair with Tennessee for the Old Spice championship. Record: 5-0

* L Dec. 3 in Detroit: Deep teams can get tired, too. In a potential Final Four preview at Ford Field, the Spartans aren’t up to a meeting with No. 1 North Carolina. Record: 5-1

* W Dec. 7 in East Lansing: Hey, an unranked team! In the first game at Breslin in three weeks, MSU takes care of Bradley. Record: 6-1

* W Dec. 13 in East Lansing.: After finals week, the Spartans fight through early doldrums to whip Alcorn State. Record: 7-1

* W Dec. 17 in East Lansing: The Citadel may be disciplined, but it isn’t good enough to cope with Breslin – even with students home for the holidays. Record: 8-1

* L Dec. 20 in Houston: After a brief respite, it’s back to the top 10. Texas gets revenge for last year’s loss at The Palace. Record: 8-2

* W Dec. 27 in Auburn Hills: Oakland, which beat Oregon at The Palace last year, gives MSU all it wants but comes up just short of an upset. Record: 9-2

* L Dec. 31 in Minneapolis: Tubby Smith gets a program win over MSU in the Big Ten opener on New Year’s Eve. Record: 9-3

* W Jan. 3 in Evanston, Ill.: The Spartans stay on the road and take out some anger on Northwestern and its leaky zone defense. Record: 10-3

* W Jan. 6 in East Lansing: MSU returns home to take on an Ohio State team with enough talent to make this uncomfortable. Record: 11-3

* W Jan. 10 in East Lansing: The defending national champion Kansas Jayhawks – minus a few of last year’s stars – invade Breslin for a marquee matchup. Record: 12-3

* W Jan. 14 in State College, Pa.: Last year’s upset loss at Penn State gives the Spartans motivation to make amends. Record: 13-3

* W Jan. 17 in East Lansing: Illinois typically gives MSU trouble in Breslin, but the surging Spartans win handily. Record: 14-3

* W Jan. 21 in East Lansing: MSU’s sixth straight win, over Northwestern, pushes its Big Ten record to 5-1. Record: 15-3

* L Jan. 25 in Columbus, Ohio: Freshman center B.J. Mullens and the Buckeyes earn a mild upset and a season split with MSU. Record: 15-4

* W Jan. 29 in Iowa City: The Spartans get back at the Hawkeyes for the ugliest loss of 2008, a 43-36 abomination. Record: 16-4

* W Feb. 1 in East Lansing: A Sunday afternoon trouncing of Penn State has MSU in the title hunt, 7-2 at the halfway point. Record: 17-4

* W Feb. 4 in East Lansing: Minnesota comes to Breslin looking for a season sweep but is broomed off the premises. Record: 18-4

* W Feb. 7 in East Lansing: Izzo protégé Tom Crean has Indiana – the Big Ten’s worst team – playing hard, but that isn’t nearly enough. Record: 19-4

* W Feb. 10 in Ann Arbor: The only meeting of the season between MSU and Michigan results in a hard-fought victory for the Spartans. Record: 20-4

* L Feb. 17 in West Lafayette, Ind.: Showdown time. MSU has a week to prepare for Purdue, but the Boilermakers prevail in a classic. Record: 20-5

* W Feb. 22 in East Lansing: Izzo gets Bo. In the only meeting of the regular season with Wisconsin, the Spartans edge Bo Ryan’s Badgers. Record: 21-5

* W Feb. 25 in East Lansing: Iowa is roadkill as the Spartans stay a game behind Purdue at 12-3 in league play. Record: 22-5

* L Feb. 28 or March 1 in Champaign, Ill.: And here’s the killer. The Illini pull the upset to knock MSU two games behind the Boilers. Record: 22-6

* W March 3, 4 or 5 in Bloomington, Ind.: MSU crushes Indiana, but Purdue clinches the outright title by beating Northwestern. Record: 23-6

* W March 7 or 8 in East Lansing: This was supposed to be the title showdown. Instead, MSU beats Purdue to pad its NCAA resume and finish 14-4, one game back. Record: 24-6

* W March 13 in Indianapolis: The No. 2 seed Spartans strike back at No. 7 seed Illinois in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tournament. Record: 25-6

* W March 14 in Indianapolis: Ah, Wisconsin. The Badgers ripped the Spartans’ hearts out in the semis last year. This year, MSU narrowly atones. Record: 26-6

* W March 15 in Indianapolis: Finally, the league tournament gets an attractive final. And MSU’s depth pays off in the rubber match with Purdue. Record: 27-6

* W March 20 in Dayton, Ohio: The Spartans, the No. 3 seed in the Midwest Regional, get past No. 14 seed Tulsa – and former MSU assistant Doug Wojcik. Record: 28-6

* W March 22 in Dayton, Ohio: Those 3-6 matchups are always good. MSU edges Oklahoma to reach the Sweet 16 for the eighth time in 12 years. Record: 29-6

* W March 27 in Indianapolis: No. 2 seed Louisville is MSU’s next victim. The Spartans reach 30 wins for the third time in school history. Record: 30-6

* L March 29 in Indianapolis: Detroit is one win away. But No. 1 seed Pittsburgh earns the trip by avenging last season’s NCAA loss to the Spartans. Final record: 30-7

   

Comments

[eat it tanfan]

haha i win!

[burtybob67]

Joe: I hope you are correct in your selections of the Dayton and Indy locations - close to home would be nice.
Spartans arecapable of beating anybody out there with the possible exception of NC.

[burtybob67]

Joe: I hope you are correct in your selections of the Dayton and Indy locations - close to home would be nice.
Spartans are capable of beating anybody out there with the possible exception of NC.

[Spartan4L]

MSU as a number 3 seed?? Pssshh...riiiiiiiight, i would say number 2 at least joe. Come on man!

[Chris]

* W March 3, 4 or 5 in Bloomington, Ind.: MSU crushes Indiana, but Purdue clinches the outright title by beating Northwestern. Record: 23-6

This prediction was my favorite. Overall, pretty good job Joe.

[evanstonspartan]

spartan4l
This was his prediction going into the season, not his current prediction. Of course they are 2 seed right now, but good post man..

[Stone]

Big PAT on the back for calling the Lions ascension this year. Little shun for underestimating the Illini's over achievement.

That Penn St. game and Wisconsin foul games from last year still sting and deserve even more analysis because it disrupted the integrity of the game, kinda like the whole NCAA tournament of 2004.

[dmbtierney]

Hey, Joe: why do all the fans want the team to go to Dayton for the first two rounds of the tournament. I've talked to lots of people within the program and none of them want to have anything to do with Dayton. In reality, a one-hour flight to Dayton isn't much different than an hour and a half flight to Minneapolis, Kansas City or Philadelphia. For the fans, Dayton has the smallest arena of the eight sites, making it almost impossible to find tickets, and the tickets available are priced way out of sight. If you are at home watching on TV, where they play makes no difference whatsoever. So, the idea of playing close to home in Dayton is a non-factor (unless you are a State fan living in Dayton with access to tickets). For the true, traveling fans, Minneapolis is the better venue with more and less expensive tickets available.

[JMoist]

Pitt is still overrated and will not beat MSU anywhere, anytime, at anything athletic...

[spartandawgs]

Well you might have missed on some games but with a loss in the BTT championship you will be dead on record wise. That being said you were way of on the 4 Big Ten Teams in and on Olahoma being a 6 seed. Also you thought 27-6 would get the Spartans a 2 seed now we know it will get them a 2 seed. But that is pry because yopu didn't expect the Big Ten to be as good as it was.
GO STATE!!!

[Spartan4L]

Yeah I got it now lol...I just kinda skimmed the article at first!! Just nvm that comment.

[MayoSpartan]

Joe's predictions are pretty good ... but safe.

Safe like Coach D's and the athletic departments statement concerning Glen Winston. Winston "has been suspended immediately and indefinitely from all football-related activities," coach Mark Dantonio said in a released statement.

What the heck does this mean? is Winston off the team for good, or until the smoke clears?

As for Basketball, I hope our Spartans go beyond the Elite Eight and all Izzo's four year commitments get a trip to the Final Four.

Go Green!

[MoPete]

Pretty good for the beginning of the season, Joe.
Go Green

[scott skiles]

OK, so I went back and found my preseason predictions. I'm not sure if I sold the Spartans short, or if I overestimated the competition. Clearly, Purdue was not the team we expected once Robbie Hummel, their best player, went down with a spinal fracture. Even though he came back to play, he was not the player we expected this year

I predicted a 8-4 non-conference record, and they did better! I still think losing in the first round of the Old Spice helped them. If they beat Maryland, I think they would have lost the next two games.

14-4 Big 10 season, which was pretty close.

1-1 Big 10 tournament, we'll see what happens here!

1-1 NCAA Tournament. I think/hope this prediction will be wrong, I think they will make the elite 8 and there is no reason they can't make the final 4. I watched the 2005 game against Kentucky last night, and it was amazing to watch that game and see just how bad that team was defensively. Of course they were much better on offense, going 8 for 8 from the field to start the second half. I think this team is much better than the 2005 team, but doesn't have the same firepower on offense.

I predicted the 14-4 Big 10 regular season record would result in 3rd place finish. Although the record was close, a 14-4 finish would have still given them a Big 10 title by 3 games!

I predicted losses to Wisc and Purdue, plus 2 other away losses. Who would have thought the 2 other losses would be at home against PSU and NW, and that they would go 8-1 on the road! Unbelievable!

I predicted MSU's leading scorer would be Lucas. Nailed that one :)

My predicted 2009 All-Big Ten team was

Lucas
Landry
Hummel
Coble
Moore

Well, at least I got the right Spartan!

I predicted 5 big 10 teams in the NCAA

Purdue
Wisconsin
Michigan State
Minnesota
Ohio State

I still like these picks, but there might be a few more Big 10 teams in the dance.

[USMCSpartan(Ret.)]

watching some of the syracuse/st johns game and a big fight almost broke out - they were all talking smack and taking cheap shots reminded of that dumas kid from indy

[Fresh]

Good job Joe. I like your analysis, even when I disagree.

My predictions were pretty good, just didn't get the right games. I said MSU would go 15-3 (all road losses) in the B10 and 10-2 non-conference (L to Texas not Maryland, 20+ loss to UNC). I said they would win the B10 by 2 games and finish 32-6. Last loss is to eventual champion UNC in the Final Four keeping Izzo's streak alive.

I believe my predictions were in the other blog (Bleeding Green), though.

[Bingo]

The only prediction I made is that we would beat uma on their home court. Yeah, it was an ugly win, but to hear the hiss of the air go out of that arena like a punctured basketball was music to my ears. I hope we get to do it again yet in the BT tournanment.

[Ben Green]

Nice job, Joe! Pretty darn close.

[Stan]

Great article Joe ... I hate that media-types all love to make predictions at the beginning of the year, but never re-visit them.

How about point spreads now?? :)

[USMCSpartan(Ret.)]

I would hope that the winston kid is gone for good. basketball junkies didn't like dumas's actions and hockey fans didn't like our kids actions against the scUM player - winston is as bad as they were

[D-man]

USMCSpartan(Ret.)
The kid is 18-19yrs old. He got in a fist fight not a knife or a gun but a fist fight. I'm not condoning it but how many people out there can say they haven't been in an altercation? Don't be so quick to judge. I believe the guy deserves a second chance if he is a model citizen and meets all of Coach D's requirements for reinstatement. Go Luck Glen and Go State.

[fishiganstate]

I want the Spartans at Dayton. It's a great basketball venue, only 4 hour drive and far less likely of having foul weather than Minneapolis. With Minni, you've got to fly, rent a car and essentially double your expenses. As a big college basketball fan, I bought tickets to Dayton some time ago. It's icing on the cake if the Spartan's play there.