Firm yet manageable

The MSU football schedule. Like well-kept hair.

   In keeping with lists week, here are the 12 games on that schedule, ranked in terms of percentage chance of MSU winning.

* Montana State: 99 percent. There’s always a chance.
* Western Michigan: 90 percent. A tad higher than the CMU game because later in the season, the usual bumps and bruises should hurt a team like Western more than a team like MSU.
* Central Michigan: 88 percent. LeFevour can make it interesting.
* At Purdue: 75 percent. I have nothing to say about this game, and may not when it comes, either.
* Michigan: 70 percent. I’m sure some MSU fans think a 30-point blowout is around 110 percent possible. But a 70 percent chance of winning vs. U-M heading into a season is by far the highest since … certainly before the Schembechler era began in 1969.
* Northwestern: 65 percent. At some point, MSU will actually beat Northwestern on homecoming, right? Or stop scheduling the Wildcats for homecoming? NW goes for three parade soakers in a row.
At Minnesota: 60 percent. The Spartans are better but this will be Halloween night in the Gophers’ new and (presumably) rocking stadium.
Iowa: 51 percent. Should be a classic, under the lights in East Lansing.
Notre Dame: 50 percent. Calm down, those who think that just because MSU hasn’t lost in South Bend since 1994 means it couldn’t possibly happen again. It’s an amazing streak that will end at some point, as all do. And an improving Notre Dame team has a 50/50 chance to kill the curse of Todd Schulz/Bill Burke/Ryan Van Dyke/Jeff Smoker/Drew Stanton/Brian Hoyer.
At Illinois: 40 percent. A really interesting game. Illinois has enough offensive firepower and experience to be a darkhorse Big Ten contender, and a defense with enough questions to create another frustrating season.
At Wisconsin: 40 percent. A huge Big Ten opener. Wisconsin wants payback for last year, MSU’s linemen on both sides should want payback for what the Badgers did to them for most of that afternoon.
Penn State: 35 percent. Senior day, Spartan Stadium, a scenario that saw an MSU win in this game two years ago. But this is the best team on the schedule and it will be difficult. Penn State lost its whole secondary and receiving corps and much of its offensive line, but still has Darryl Clark, Evan Royster, Navorro Bowman, Sean Lee and some talented replacements in waiting.

So what does this say?
There are only seven games on the schedule with a better than 50 percent chance of a win, and only four at 75 percent or better, which sounds daunting. But if you did something like this in most years, you’d find at least one or two games in the 10 percent range for the Spartans. (Such as last year’s Penn State and Ohio State games). There’s nothing on this schedule that can be considered anything more than a tough game. No Indiana Jones missions. From that perspective, 2009 is definitely an opportunity for MSU.