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April 09, 2010

MSU and Duke, revisited

The point of this season preview story was to examine MSU's chances of being "the next Duke." That is, the next program without an overwhelming history of success to break into that upper, upper tier.

    Duke has some advantages, outlined in the story, that MSU can't duplicate. Mainly, the rivalry with UNC and the academic rep. But in terms of performance, Izzo and K are eerily similar through 15 seasons. Here's the breakdown:

FIRST FIVE SEASONS
Duke
Year        Record        League finish        NCAA
1980-81    17-13        T-5th                No
1981-82    10-17        T-6th                No
1982-83    11-17        7th                   No
1983-84    24-10        T-3rd                Second round
1984-85    23-8        T-4th                  Second round

MSU
Year        Record        League finish        NCAA
1995-96    16-16        7th                      No
1996-97    17-12        T-6th                   No
1997-98    22-8        T-1st                    Sweet Sixteen
1998-99    33-5        1st                        Final Four
1999-00    32-7        T-1st                    National champs

TOTALS:
Duke: 85-65 (.567), no league titles, no Sweet Sixteens or Final Fours, 2-2 NCAA record
MSU: 120-48 (.714), three league titles, three Sweet Sixteens, two Final Fours, national title, 12-2 NCAA record

SECOND FIVE SEASONS
Duke
Year        Record        League finish        NCAA
1985-86    37-3        1st                    Title game
1986-87    24-9        3rd                    Sweet Sixteen
1987-88    28-7        3rd                    Final Four
1988-89    28-8        T-2nd                Final Four
1989-90    29-9        2nd                    Title game


MSU
Year        Record        League finish        NCAA
2000-01    28-5        T-1st                    Final Four
2001-02    19-12        5th                    First round
2002-03    22-13        T-3rd                Elite Eight
2003-04    18-12        T-2nd                First round
2004-05    26-7        2nd                    Final Four

TOTALS:
Duke: 146-36 (.802), one league title, five Sweet Sixteens, four Final Fours, no titles, 20-5 NCAA record
MSU: 113-49 (.698), one league title, three Sweet Sixteens, two Final Fours, no titles, 11-5 NCAA record


TEN-YEAR COMPARISON
Duke: 231-101 (.696), one league title, five Sweet Sixteens, four Final Fours, no titles, 22-7 NCAA record
MSU: 233-97 (.706), four league titles, six Sweet Sixteens, four Final Fours, one title, 23-7 NCAA record

THIRD FIVE SEASONS
Duke       
Year        Record        League finish        NCAA
1990-91    32-7        1st                    National champs
1991-92    34-2        1st                    National champs
1992-93    24-8        T-3rd                Second round
1993-94    28-6        1st                    Title game
1994-95    13-18        9th                    No


MSU
Year        Record        League finish        NCAA
2005-06    22-12        T-6th                First round
2006-07    23-12        T-6th                Second round
2007-08    27-9        4th                    Sweet Sixteen
2008-09    31-7        1st                    Title game
2009-10    28-9        T-1st                   Final Four


TOTALS:
Duke: 131-41 (.762), three league titles, three Sweet Sixteens, three Final Fours, two titles, 18-2 NCAA record
MSU: 131-49 (.728), two league titles, three Sweet Sixteens, two Final Fours, no titles, 12-5 NCAA record


SO THE FIRST 15 YEARS FOR EACH PROGRAM LOOKS LIKE THIS:

Duke: 362-142 (.718), four league titles, eight Sweet Sixteens, seven Final Fours, two titles, 40-9 NCAA record

MSU: 364-146 (.714), six league titles, nine Sweet Sixteens, six Final Fours, one title, 35-12 NCAA record

    Sorry, but I think that's almost weird. Isn't it? Now, let's compare perceptions. By the mid-1990s, Duke was an institution and K had his own wing reserved in the Hall of Fame. Do MSU and Izzo get that kind of respect at this point? Izzo is getting there. MSU as a brand name, no, not like Duke. And I think that's where you see the difference in national perception of/respect for the ACC vs. the Big Ten.

    Meanwhile, Duke just completed its 30th season under K (and yeah, I know, he hurt his back and forced someone else to take credit for all those losses when they were bad, but it's all the K era). Here are the numbers on Duke's second 15 under K, bolstered by his fourth national title run:

    427-93 (.821), eight league titles, 11 Sweet Sixteens, four Final Fours, two titles, 38-13 NCAA record

    Can MSU's next 15 look anything like that? Will Izzo be here for most/all of them? If so, by then we'll be way past posing the question of where MSU stands.

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Joe Rexrode
MSU Sports Reporter
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