Election Prognosis

While I recognize it is still a long way from November, I thought it would be fun to predict the results of the coming elections.

In the primaries tomorrow, Obama takes North Carolina by 3% points; Clinton takes Indiana by 9%.  This increases the pressure on the Super Delegates (what a bizarre choice of terminology for a democratic process) that Clinton is more electable, but the majority of Super Delegates who have yet to commit still sit it out.

On May 13, West Virginia goes to Clinton by 12%.

On May 20, Oregon goes to Obama by 6%, Clinton takes Kentucky by 7%.

On June 1, Puerto Rico goes to Obama by 3%, giving them more clout that Michigan or Florida.

Finally on June 3rd it is over, Clinton taking both Montana and South Dakota by 12%.

There will be no resolution on seating Michigan or Florida delegates by the end of the primaries.  In the counted delegate count, Obama will have 130 more pledged delegates and 280,000 more popular votes than Clinton.

There will be massive campaign by the Clinton crowd that she can beat McCain while Obama can’t, but the Super Delegates will swing to Obama in droves by the end of June, either after threats from Howard Dean, common sense, or fear of a black backlash should the nomination be “stolen” from Obama due to “smoke filled room deals.”

Thus it will be McCain going against Obama in the race of young against old, experience against exuberance, and of course left and center.  The winner will be, surprisingly, McCain by 2%.  This will be because more of Obama’s past will come to light and the impacts of Wright, mentor Frank, Michelle Obama’s comments and increased scrutiny, Obama’s voting record, Rezko revelations, and others become better known and publicized.  Increased violence in Iraq will drain votes from McCain, but will also draw some voters who understand that precipitous withdrawal from Iraq is dangerous.  Many of the erstwhile Clinton voters will choose to sit out the election rather than vote for McCain, but many conservatives will sit it out as well.

The democrats will maintain control of both House and Senate, but will not have a filibuster proof majority and divided rule of the country will continue.

I’m curious what others think.

Comments

[amac]

My fear, after observing Obama's handling of the Rev. Wright scandal, is that he's easily "swift-boated" like Kerry in 2004 or Gore in 2000. Hillary, on the other hand, is a tough broad who is nobody's fool, a Harry Truman-type able to give 'em hell with the best of them. In other words, she combines Democratic politics with Republican style--a perfect combo. She's my gal!!

[Jerry Scarborough]

If Obama finishes the primary season with a lead in popular vote, and pledged delegates, and Clinton convinces the superdelegates to help her steal the nomination, will the Democrats finally stop whining about Bush v Gore? After all, the Supreme Court only deferred to Florida. This would be out and out theft.

[Timo Kokko]

After just the first day of my predictions, I understand why I don't do political analysis for a living.

[mcilhaney]

What we are watching in the Democratic Prmarys is the election of the next President. Mccain is a loser.

[Dave Caceres]

I've been noticing that there is still much written about whether the Michigan and Florida Democratic Delegates will be seated and if their votes will count. The problem is that we, the Democratic voters in Michigan and Florida didn't make the choice to move our primary up, but we are the ones who are being punished by the Democratic National Committee. I can understand that the early primary violated their rules. That Michigan and Florida's Democratic officials should have known better. But the DNC isn't looking to punish them; they are looking to punish us. I am a lifelong Democrat. But now the party that I have supported my whole voting life is planning on disenfranchising me. This angers me and saddens me. How could I give my vote to a party that won't recognize my vote in my own party primary? I can see that my only choice would be to give my vote to someone other than the Democratic nominee in November. It is a hard choice to make, but it is one that I am seriously considering taking into account the way the DNC is looking to punish Michigan and Florida voters, not the officials.

[Timo Kokko]

Dave, very interesting observation. I'm curious how many voters share your viewpoint. If you are a moderate democrat, you have an option with McCain. If you are a liberal democrat, I think you would be out of luck this election cycle.

[Aubrey Marron]

Dave C, I share your feeling of disenfranchisement with the primary, but let's not suffer through four more years of "stay the course in Iraq" and "I'd appoint Supreme Court justices like the ones Bush appointed" and God knows what else, just because we are mad at the party. That would be far worse punishment than what the party has done to us.

[EmersonsZen]

Dave C.--

You have indeed been disenfranchised. In fact, one of the largest disenfranchisements in the history of this country.

Listen to your inner Republican. C'mon in Dave, the water is fine...

[Aubrey Marron]

Dave C.,

Don't listen to that man behind the curtain...

[Timo Kokko]

Aubrey,
Surely you don't have anything against John Roberts, so I assume you don't like Sam Alito. I am curious on what basis you hold that opinion?